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Produkcja we wzrostowej fazie cyklu koniunkturalnego w Polsce

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  • Andrzej Jędruchniewicz

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest weryfikacja dwóch hipotez, które są podstawowymi elementami austriackiej teorii cyklu koniunkturalnego: 1) ekspansywna polityka pieniężna powoduje wydłużanie produkcji, czyli zwiększanie czasu wytwarzania dobra konsumpcyjnego; 2) obniżki stóp procentowych prowadzą do powstania względnych różnic we wzroście produkcji branż wytwarzających dobra w różnych czasowych odległościach od konsumenta. Przyjęte w artykule metody badawcze są zgodne z metodologicznym stanowiskiem szkoły austriackiej. Zastosowano metodę dedukcji, a więc posłużono się logiką werbalną w analizie kolejności procesów gospodarczych oraz metodę porównawczą, którą wykorzystano przy analizie dynamicznych zmian badanych wielkości. Badania potwierdziły obie hipotezy. Analiza oparta o przyjęte wskaźniki wykazała, że w Polsce w okresie III kw. 2002 – II kw. 2008, czyli we wzrostowej fazie cyklu Juglara, jak i w krótszych fazach wzrostowych, produkcja dóbr konsumpcyjnych wydłużała się. Analiza wykazała również, że w tym okresie, po obniżkach stóp procentowych NBP, produkcja dóbr najbardziej odległych od konsumenta oraz dóbr trwałych wzrastała szybciej niż produkcja artykułów, które znajdują się w bliższej odległości od finalnego odbiorcy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrzej Jędruchniewicz, 2012. "Produkcja we wzrostowej fazie cyklu koniunkturalnego w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 73-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2012:i:10:p:73-95
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frederick C. Mills, 1936. "Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill36-1, July.
    2. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, July.
    3. Frederick C. Mills, 1936. "Index to "Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes"," NBER Chapters, in: Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes, pages 573-581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Block, Walter & Garschina, Kenneth M, 1996. "Hayek, Business Cycles and Fractional Reserve Banking: Continuing the De-homogenization Process," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 77-94.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cykl koniunkturalny; kapitał; polityka pieniężna; wydłużanie struktury produkcji; poszerzanie struktury produkcji;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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