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With the Game on the (Betting) Line: NBA Referee Performance in the Last Two Minutes

Author

Listed:
  • Ariel R Belasen
  • Alan T Belasen
  • Alexandre M Olbrecht

Abstract

The National Basketball Association (NBA) publishes “Last Two Minute Reports†of referee calls to encourage accountability and a consistent application of the rules. However, recent partnerships with gaming operators have brought referee impartiality into question. This study finds that there is a significant difference in the percentage of incorrect referee calls in games where there is a narrower betting gap between the favored team and the underdog team than in games with a wider betting gap. Incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls are actual referee calls or non-calls that are later found to be wrong based on NBA review standards. Specifically, referees make 23% fewer incorrect calls for visiting team underdogs and 42% fewer incorrect calls for home team underdogs than their favored opponents. Unmitigated incorrect calls may affect the fairness and integrity of game outcomes as well as result in financial consequences for gaming operators and sports bettors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel R Belasen & Alan T Belasen & Alexandre M Olbrecht, 2025. "With the Game on the (Betting) Line: NBA Referee Performance in the Last Two Minutes," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 913-935, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:8:p:913-935
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025251369447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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