IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v26y2025i8p913-935.html

With the Game on the (Betting) Line: NBA Referee Performance in the Last Two Minutes

Author

Listed:
  • Ariel R Belasen
  • Alan T Belasen
  • Alexandre M Olbrecht

Abstract

The National Basketball Association (NBA) publishes “Last Two Minute Reports†of referee calls to encourage accountability and a consistent application of the rules. However, recent partnerships with gaming operators have brought referee impartiality into question. This study finds that there is a significant difference in the percentage of incorrect referee calls in games where there is a narrower betting gap between the favored team and the underdog team than in games with a wider betting gap. Incorrect calls and incorrect non-calls are actual referee calls or non-calls that are later found to be wrong based on NBA review standards. Specifically, referees make 23% fewer incorrect calls for visiting team underdogs and 42% fewer incorrect calls for home team underdogs than their favored opponents. Unmitigated incorrect calls may affect the fairness and integrity of game outcomes as well as result in financial consequences for gaming operators and sports bettors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel R Belasen & Alan T Belasen & Alexandre M Olbrecht, 2025. "With the Game on the (Betting) Line: NBA Referee Performance in the Last Two Minutes," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 913-935, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:8:p:913-935
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025251369447
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025251369447
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/15270025251369447?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2018. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 455-472, May.
    2. Bastian Kordyaka & Mario Lackner & Hendrik Sonnabend, 2022. "Can too many cooks spoil the broth? Coordination costs, fatigue, and performance in high‐intensity tasks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 1065-1085, January.
    3. Thomas Dohmen & Jan Sauermann, 2016. "Referee Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 679-695, September.
    4. Rhett Brymer & Ryan M. Rodenberg & Huimiao Zheng & Tim R. Holcomb, 2021. "College Football Referee Bias and Sports Betting Impact," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 91-106, January.
    5. Devin G. Pope & Joseph Price & Justin Wolfers, 2018. "Awareness Reduces Racial Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 4988-4995, November.
    6. Luis Garicano & Ignacio Palacios-Huerta & Canice Prendergast, 2005. "Favoritism Under Social Pressure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 208-216, May.
    7. John Considine & John Eakins & Peter Horgan & Conor Weir, 2024. "Compensating Tendencies in Disciplinary Sanctions: The Case of Hurling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 659-682, August.
    8. Vincenzo Scoppa, 2008. "Are subjective evaluations biased by social factors or connections? An econometric analysis of soccer referee decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 123-140, August.
    9. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar, 2018. "The Conversion of Money Lines Into Win Probabilities," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 990-1015, October.
    10. Jonah Berger & Devin Pope, 2011. "Can Losing Lead to Winning?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 817-827, May.
    11. Elaad, Guy & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2020. "Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Vasiliki Makropoulou & Raphael N. Markellos, 2011. "Optimal Price Setting In Fixed‐Odds Betting Markets Under Information Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(4), pages 519-536, September.
    13. Joseph Price & Marc Remer & Daniel F. Stone, 2012. "Subperfect Game: Profitable Biases of NBA Referees," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 271-300, March.
    14. Brad R. Humphreys, 2010. "Point spread shading and behavioral biases in NBA betting markets," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 6(1), pages 13-26, Aprile.
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    16. Steven B. Caudill & Franklin G. Mixon & Scott Wallace, 2014. "Life on the Red Carpet: Star Players and Referee Bias in the National Basketball Association," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 245-253, July.
    17. Joseph Price & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Racial Discrimination Among NBA Referees," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1859-1887.
    18. Dimitrije Cabarkapa & Michael A Deane & Andrew C Fry & Grant T Jones & Damjana V Cabarkapa & Nicolas M Philipp & Daniel Yu, 2022. "Game statistics that discriminate winning and losing at the NBA level of basketball competition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
    19. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 223-246, April.
    20. Hua Gong, 2022. "The Effect of the Crowd on Home Bias: Evidence from NBA Games During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 950-975, October.
    21. Thomas J. Dohmen, 2008. "The Influence Of Social Forces: Evidence From The Behavior Of Football Referees," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(3), pages 411-424, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Bose & Eberhard Feess & Helge Mueller, 2022. "Favoritism towards High-Status Clubs: Evidence from German Soccer," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 422-478.
    2. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
    3. Finn Spilker & Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting & Hendrik Sonnabend, 2025. "Favouritism, social pressure, and gender," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(3), pages 754-770.
    4. Hua Gong, 2022. "The Effect of the Crowd on Home Bias: Evidence from NBA Games During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 950-975, October.
    5. Bar-Eli, Michael & Krumer, Alex & Morgulev, Elia, 2020. "Ask not what economics can do for sports - Ask what sports can do for economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. David Butler & Robert Butler & Carl Singleton, 2026. "Objective Calls Under the Spotlight: Referee Consistency and Behaviour on Football's Biggest Stage," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 171-213, February.
    7. Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Ryan Rodenberg, 2013. "Employee Discipline And Basketball Referees: A Prediction Market Approach," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 7(2), pages 43-54.
    9. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
    10. Morabito, Leo & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2024. "Inequity Aversion in Subjective Evaluations: Evidence from Referees' Decisions in Soccer," IZA Discussion Papers 17512, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2023. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 391-418, June.
    12. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2022. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    13. Mike Hsu, 2024. "Umpire Home Bias in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(4), pages 423-442, May.
    14. Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2021. "Social pressure in the stadiums: Do agents change behavior without crowd support?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Stefano Cabras & J. D. Tena, 2023. "Implicit institutional incentives and individual decisions: Causal inference with deep learning models," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 3739-3754, September.
    16. Andrea Albanese & Stijn Baert & Olivier Verstraeten, 2020. "Twelve eyes see more than eight. Referee bias and the introduction of additional assistant referees in soccer," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, February.
    17. J. James Reade & Dominik Schreyer & Carl Singleton, 2022. "Eliminating supportive crowds reduces referee bias," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1416-1436, July.
    18. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per & Priks, Mikael, 2010. "Behavior under social pressure: Empty Italian stadiums and referee bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 212-214, August.
    19. Stijn Baert & Simon Amez, 2018. "No better moment to score a goal than just before half time? A soccer myth statistically tested," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, March.
    20. David Winkelmann & Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting, 2021. "Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 3054-3064, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:8:p:913-935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.