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Hunger to Violence: Explaining the Violent Escalation of Nonviolent Demonstrations

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  • Daniel Gustafson

Abstract

Under what conditions do nonviolent demonstrations escalate to violence? I answer this question using a novel theory of individual impatience in protests that begin peacefully. Rather than considering protest groups as unitary actors, I present a theory of collective action in which a group’s decision over whether or not to engage in anti-government violence is the product of individual preferences. Individuals involved in a nonviolent demonstration use the immediacy of their needs and the sustainability of collective action to decide whether or not to initiate violence against the state. Specifically, I hypothesize that the likelihood of violent escalation will increase when the food price increases and unemployment rate is high or when the event is spontaneous. Analysis of a Bayesian multilevel model of 2,405 nonviolent demonstrations from 1991 to 2017 in Africa and Latin America supports my expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Gustafson, 2020. "Hunger to Violence: Explaining the Violent Escalation of Nonviolent Demonstrations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(6), pages 1121-1145, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:6:p:1121-1145
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719890669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Rao, Nitya & Marzi, Emma & Baudish, Isabel & Laila, Amar & Conti, Costanza & Hicks, Christina C., 2025. "Citizen voice and state response in the context of food system transformations," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Angela Chesler, 2025. "Environmental displacement and political instability: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(4), pages 1076-1094, July.

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