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Ballistic Missile Proliferation

Author

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  • Daniel Barkley

    (Department of Economics, California State University, Long Beach)

Abstract

This analysis examines ballistic missile proliferation in the context of strategic interactions among neighboring states. The analysis finds that when faced with ballistic missile threats, nations respond rationally and acquire ballistic missiles as a deterrent. Using a panel data set of 119 countries from 1967 to 1997, this study shows that the probability of a country procuring ballistic missiles increases nonlinearly as the number of bordering states with ballistic missiles increases. Although international norms arising from the Missile Technology Control Regime reduced the probability of missile proliferation, these externalities did not offset a state's decision to arm in response to ballistic missile arsenals in neighboring states. This analysis also finds that surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) increased the probability of proliferation in two ways: first, because ballistic missiles provided states ``ensured penetration'' of a rival's air defenses; and second, because SAMs reduced the ability of a rival to retaliate against a ballistic missile attack.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Barkley, 2008. "Ballistic Missile Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(3), pages 455-473, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:52:y:2008:i:3:p:455-473
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002707310424
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    2. Intriligator, Michael D, 1975. "Strategic Considerations in the Richardson Model of Arms Races," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 339-353, April.
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