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Uncertainty and the Evolution of Cooperation

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  • Jonathan Bendor

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

It is well known that inferential errors can induce nice but provocable strategies to engage in vendettas with each other. It is therefore generally believed that imperfect monitoring reduces the payoffs of such strategies and impairs the evolution of cooperation. The current literature, however, only scrutinizes specific strategies, either analytically or in particular tournaments. This article examines in a more general way how monitoring uncertainty affects the fate of cooperation in tournaments of the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). The first set of results shows that imperfect monitoring does create a sharp trade-off between cooperativeness and unexploitability. The second set examines how random shocks affect the tournament payoffs of several large classes of strategies in the IPD, and shows how noise can help certain nice strategies. The third set analyzes how imperfect monitoring can facilitate the emergence of cooperation based on a population of non-nice strategies. Thus the idea that inferential uncertainty always harms nice strategies and always impairs the evolution of cooperation must be sharply qualified.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Bendor, 1993. "Uncertainty and the Evolution of Cooperation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 709-734, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:37:y:1993:i:4:p:709-734
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002793037004007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul R. Milgrom, 1984. "Axelrod's The Evolution of Cooperation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(2), pages 305-309, Summer.
    2. Jonathan Bendor & Roderick M. Kramer & Suzanne Stout, 1991. "When in Doubt..," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 691-719, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Macy, 1996. "Natural Selection and Social Learning in Prisoner's Dilemma," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 25(1), pages 103-137, August.
    2. Michael W. Macy, 1997. "Identity, Interest And Emergent Rationality," Rationality and Society, , vol. 9(4), pages 427-448, November.
    3. Kenneth A Frank & Yun-Jia Lo & G Geoffrey Booth & Juha-Pekka Kallunki, 2019. "The market dynamics of socially embedded trading," Rationality and Society, , vol. 31(2), pages 152-181, May.
    4. Al-Mutairi, M.S. & Hipel, K.W. & Kamel, M.S., 2008. "Trust and cooperation from a fuzzy perspective," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(5), pages 430-446.
    5. M.C. Boerlijst & M.A. Nowak & K. Sigmund, 1997. "Equal Pay for all Prisoners/ The Logic of Contrition," Working Papers ir97073, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    6. Philip Streich & Jack S. Levy, 2007. "Time Horizons, Discounting, and Intertemporal Choice," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(2), pages 199-226, April.
    7. Evans, Alecia & Sesmero, Juan, 2022. "Cooperation in Social Dilemmas with Correlated Noisy Payoffs: Theory and Experimental Evidence," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 322804, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Evans, Alecia & Sesmero, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Noisy Payoffs in an Infinitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma – Experimental Evidence," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322434, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Steven T. Schwartz & Richard A. Young, 2002. "A Laboratory Investigation of Verification and Reputation Formation in a Repeated Joint Investment Setting," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 311-342, June.
    10. Howard Kunreuther & Gabriel Silvasi & Eric T. Bradlow & Dylan Small, 2007. "Deterministic and Stochastic Prisoner's Dilemma Games: Experiments in Interdependent Security," NBER Technical Working Papers 0341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jonathan Bendor & Piotr Swistak, 1998. "Evolutionary Equilibria: Characterization Theorems and Their Implications," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 99-159, October.
    12. Jasper R. De Vries & Séverine Van Bommel & Karin Peters, 2018. "Trust at a Distance—Trust in Online Communication in Environmental and Global Health Research Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    13. Howard Kunreuther & Gabriel Silvasi & Eric T. Bradlow & Dylan Small, 2009. "Bayesian analysis of deterministic and stochastic prisoner's dilemma games," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(5), pages 363-384, August.
    14. Jianzhong Wu & Robert Axelrod, 1995. "How to Cope with Noise in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 183-189, March.
    15. Fiona McGillivray & Alastair Smith, 2005. "The Impact of Leadership Turnover and Domestic Institutions on International Cooperation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(5), pages 639-660, October.
    16. Carlo Kopp & Kevin B Korb & Bruce I Mills, 2018. "Information-theoretic models of deception: Modelling cooperation and diffusion in populations exposed to "fake news"," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-35, November.
    17. Yoella Bereby-Meyer & Alvin E. Roth, 2006. "The Speed of Learning in Noisy Games: Partial Reinforcement and the Sustainability of Cooperation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1029-1042, September.
    18. Monterosso, John & Ainslie, George & Pamela Toppi Mullen, P. A. -C. & Gault, Barbara, 2002. "The fragility of cooperation: A false feedback study of a sequential iterated prisoner's dilemma," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 437-448, August.
    19. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:5:p:363-384 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Henrich, Joseph, 2004. "Reply," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 127-143, January.
    21. Amnon Rapoport & Darryl A Seale & Andrew M Colman, 2015. "Is Tit-for-Tat the Answer? On the Conclusions Drawn from Axelrod's Tournaments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-11, July.
    22. Curtis S. Signorino, 1996. "Simulating International Cooperation under Uncertainty," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(1), pages 152-205, March.
    23. Pradiptyo, Rimawan & Sasmitasiwi, Banoon & Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo, 2011. "Evidence of homo economicus? Findings from experiment on evolutionary prisoners' dilemma game," MPRA Paper 30480, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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