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International Trade, Productivity, and U.S. Regional Job Growth: A Shift-Share Interpretation

Author

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  • Ann R. Markusen

    (Project on Regional and Industrial Economics (PRIE), Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903 USA)

  • Helzi Noponen

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3140 USA)

  • Karl Driessen

    (Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208 USA)

Abstract

To track the sensitivity of regional growth to international flows, shift-share components can be decomposed into import, export, and domestic market segments and a productivity component. By merging data on regional employment, national employment and output, and international trade, dynamic shift-share analysis is used to compare the experience of U.S. regions for the period from 1978 to 1986. Some regions, like New England and the Pacific, have relatively positive industrial mixes for both export and domestic market growth, while others, particularly the East North Central region, have negative ones. Dynamizing the model with annual data does not necessarily minimize the gap between national and regional growth rates, and results, especially for the competitive shift component, remain sensitive to subperiod designation. Regions have different stakes in national trade policy, and some would do better to target domestic rather than overseas markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann R. Markusen & Helzi Noponen & Karl Driessen, 1991. "International Trade, Productivity, and U.S. Regional Job Growth: A Shift-Share Interpretation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 14(1), pages 15-39, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:14:y:1991:i:1:p:15-39
    DOI: 10.1177/016001769101400102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Henderson & Peter G. McGregor & Iain H. McNicoll, 1989. "Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 12(1), pages 57-65, April.
    2. Theil, Henri & Gosh, Riddhi, 1980. "A comparison of shift-share and the RAS adjustment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 175-180, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rushen, Steven F., 1998. "The Role of the Automotive Industry in Detroit's Employment Fluctuations: A Multiple Restriction Regime Approach," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(1), pages 27-46, Summer.
    3. Robert B. Begg, 1993. "Planning and Regional Science," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 23(1), pages 71-86, Summer.
    4. Georgios Fotopoulos & Dimitris Kallioras & George Petrakos, 2010. "Spatial variations of Greek manufacturing employment growth: The effects of specialization and international trade," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 109-133, March.
    5. Nilsson, Fredrik O.L. & Lindberg, Emma & Surry, Yves R., 2006. "Are the Mediterranean countries competitive in fresh fruit and vegetable exports?," 98th Seminar, June 29-July 2, 2006, Chania, Crete, Greece 10063, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Lionel Artige & Leif Neuss, 2014. "A New Shift-Share Method," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 667-683, December.

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