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Job Duration and the Macro-evaluation of Employment Policy: The Example of UK Regional Policy

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  • Colin Wren

    (Department of Economics, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK)

Abstract

The paper argues that in order to use macro-evaluation techniques to calculate the employment effect of a policy over some sub-period after policy commencement, it is necessary to determine the rate at which policy jobs are lost. Crucially, it is the rate at which jobs cease to be attributable to policy which is relevant, rather than the rate at which jobs are lost to firms. This point is demonstrated for the case of UK regional policy over the period 1971-81. It is shown that the measured employment effect of this policy is highly sensitive to assumptions about the rate of policy jobs loss, but insensitive to the period over which jobs exist prior to being lost. Under reasonable assumptions, it is argued that the employment effect of this policy over the 1970s was twice that previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Wren, 1993. "Job Duration and the Macro-evaluation of Employment Policy: The Example of UK Regional Policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 30(3), pages 573-580, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:30:y:1993:i:3:p:573-580
    DOI: 10.1080/00420989320080561
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holden, Darryl R & Nairn, Alasdair G M & Swales, J K, 1989. "Shift-Share Analysis of Regional Growth and Policy: A Critique," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(1), pages 15-34, February.
    2. J.A. Schofield, 1979. "Macro Evaluations of the Impact of Regional Policy in Britain: a Review of Recent Research1," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 16(3), pages 251-271, October.
    3. Bartels, Cornelis P. A. & Nicol, William R. & van Duijn, Jacob J., 1982. "Estimating the impact of regional policy : A review of applied research methods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 3-41, February.
    4. Twomey, Jim & Taylor, Jim, 1985. "Regional Policy and the Interregional Movement of Manufacturing Industry in Great Britain," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 32(3), pages 257-277, November.
    5. Wren, Colin & Waterson, Michael, 1991. "The Direct Employment Effects of Financial Assistance to Industry," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 116-138, January.
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