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Defining Scenarios through shift - share models. An Application to the regional employment

Author

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  • Matías Mayor Fernández

  • Ana Jesús López Menéndez

  • Rigoberto Pérez Suárez

Abstract

The analysis of different economic situations and risk factors is necessary in order to properly define forecasting scenarios. In this paper we focus on the shift-share model as a useful tool in the definition of economic scenarios, based on the different components that contribute to the change of a given economic magnitude (the so called national, sectoral and competitive effects). Although the most commonly used methodology is based on the “constant shift” and the “constant share” hypotheses, additional options can be considered based on the expected behaviour of the competitive effect, thus leading to more realistic scenarios. Once these new options are developed, this approach is applied to the definition of scenarios for the future evolution of the regional employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matías Mayor Fernández & Ana Jesús López Menéndez & Rigoberto Pérez Suárez, 2004. "Defining Scenarios through shift - share models. An Application to the regional employment," ERSA conference papers ersa04p454, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p454
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Buda, Rodolphe, 2008. "Estimation de l'emploi régional et sectoriel salarié français : application à l'année 2006 [Estimation of the french salaried regional and sectoral employment: application to the year 2006]," MPRA Paper 34881, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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