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The evolution of the employment in the European Union. A stochastic shift and share approach

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  • López Menéndez, Ana Jesús
  • Mayor Fernández, Matías

Abstract

The employment is a main economic variable whose evolution has shown different dynamics within the European Union. Recent papers have recovered the significance of the sectoral factors in the explanation of the regional growth. In this sense, shift and share analysis has been considered an extremely useful technique and a standardization procedure has been developed to decompose the regional growth into three components: the national effect, the industry-mix effect and the competitive effect. Although shift and share analysis has been widely used in the explanation of the differences of growth between regions, this method has been criticized since its classical formulation does not allow to test hypotheses. Therefore, stochastic models have been developed as an extension of classical shift and share analysis, allowing the implementation of inferential processes and forecasting tools. The aim of this paper is to analyze the recent evolution of the employment in the European Union, developing a stochastic shift and share model and testing the sources of regional and sectoral differences.

Suggested Citation

  • López Menéndez, Ana Jesús & Mayor Fernández, Matías, 2002. "The evolution of the employment in the European Union. A stochastic shift and share approach," ERSA conference papers ersa02p310, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p310
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    Cited by:

    1. Matias Mayor & Ana Jesus Lopez & Rigoberto Perez, 2007. "Forecasting Regional Employment with Shift-Share and ARIMA Modelling," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 543-551.
    2. Mayor Fernández, M. & López Menéndez, A.J. & Pérez Suárez, R., 2005. "Escenarios de empleo regional. Una propuesta basada en análisis shift-share/Regionel Employment Scenarios. A Schift-Share Approach," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 23, pages 863-887, Diciembre.
    3. IORDAN Marioara & GRIGORESCU Adriana & CHILIAN Mihaela-Nona, 2013. "Sub-Regional Disparities In Romania - The Case Of The Centru Region," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 102-117.
    4. Matías Mayor Fernández & Ana Jesús López Menéndez & Rigoberto Pérez Suárez, 2004. "Defining Scenarios through shift - share models. An Application to the regional employment," ERSA conference papers ersa04p454, European Regional Science Association.

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