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Emission Pathways Towards a Low-Carbon Energy System for Europe: A Model-Based Analysis of Decarbonization Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Karlo Hainsch
  • Thorsten Burandt
  • Konstantin Loffler
  • Claudia Kemfert
  • Pao-Yu Oei
  • Christian von Hirschhausen

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to showcase different decarbonization pathways for Europe with varying Carbon dioxide (CO2) constraints until 2050. The Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) framework, a linear mathematical optimization model, is used to compute low-carbon scenarios for 17 European countries or regions. The sectors power, low-and high-temperature heating, and passenger and freight transportation are included, with the model endogenously constructing capacities in each period. Emission constraints differ between different scenarios and are either optimized endogenously by the model, or distributed on a per-capita basis, GDP-dependent, or based on current emissions. The results show a rapid phase-in of renewable energies, if a carbon budget in line with established international climate targets is chosen. It can be shown that the achievement of the 2° target can be met with low additional costs compared to the business as usual case, while reducing total emissions by more than 30%

Suggested Citation

  • Karlo Hainsch & Thorsten Burandt & Konstantin Loffler & Claudia Kemfert & Pao-Yu Oei & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2021. "Emission Pathways Towards a Low-Carbon Energy System for Europe: A Model-Based Analysis of Decarbonization Scenarios," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(5), pages 41-66, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:42:y:2021:i:5:p:41-66
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.khai
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    2. Konstantin Löffler & Karlo Hainsch & Thorsten Burandt & Pao-Yu Oei & Claudia Kemfert & Christian Von Hirschhausen, 2017. "Designing a Model for the Global Energy System—GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
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    Citations

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    2. Castro, Vitor & Georgiou, Marios & Jackson, Thomas & Hodgkinson, Ian R. & Jackson, Lisa & Lockwood, Steve, 2024. "Digital data demand and renewable energy limits: Forecasting the impacts on global electricity supply and sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Theis Madsen & Yiannis Kountouris & Rasmus Bramstoft & Phoebe Koundouri & Dogan Keles, 2024. "Pathways for Pan-European Energy System Decarbonization: The Effect of Emission Policies on Target Alignment," DEOS Working Papers 2404, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    4. Xu, Lang & Wu, Jiyuan & Yan, Ran & Chen, Jihong, 2025. "Is international shipping in right direction towards carbon emissions control?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 189-201.
    5. Jacquemin, Julien & Thiran, Paolo & Quoilin, Sylvain, 2025. "Prioritizing the role of renewable fuels and hydrogen networks in the transition towards net zero emissions in Western Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    6. Golombek, Rolf & Hoel, Michael & Kverndokk, Snorre & Ninfole, Stefano & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2025. "Competition for carbon storage," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Wetzel, Manuel & Gils, Hans Christian & Bertsch, Valentin, 2026. "From ambition to reality: The impact of limited capacity expansion rates on the transformation pathway to a climate-neutral European energy system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).

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