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Costs and benefits of highly ambitious energy transition pathways for Europe

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  • Bogdanov, Dmitrii
  • Ram, Manish
  • Satymov, Rasul
  • Lopez, Gabriel
  • Mensah, Theophilus N.O.
  • Sadovskaia, Kristina
  • Breyer, Christian

Abstract

Climate change and energy crises push Europe to accelerate the energy-industry transition towards higher shares of renewable energy and a more efficient integrated electricity-based energy-industry system. The study examines transition scenarios ranging from carbon neutrality reached in 2050 to highest ambitions with 100% renewable electricity supply reached by 2030 and an overall carbon-neutral energy-industry system by 2035. The fastest transition coincidences with higher cost, but still with an acceptable tolerance. Reaching carbon neutrality by 2040 allows for a substantial reduction in CO2 emissions and energy costs are lower compared to the fastest transition. Allowing e-fuel imports substantially reduces the energy cost in Europe compared to complete energy sovereignty, with an optimal import share at only 7% of primary energy demand. Reaching an affordable energy supply requires close cooperation of European countries to exploit the best renewable resources and all sources of energy system flexibility to enable a low-cost energy supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Ram, Manish & Satymov, Rasul & Lopez, Gabriel & Mensah, Theophilus N.O. & Sadovskaia, Kristina & Breyer, Christian, 2025. "Costs and benefits of highly ambitious energy transition pathways for Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:336:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225041192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.138477
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