IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ecolab/v32y2021i4p552-574.html

Unemployment in Spain: The failure of wage devaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Paloma Villanueva
  • Luis Cárdenas

Abstract

This article analyses from a Keynesian approach the effect of wage devaluation on the Spanish labour market during the Great Recession post-2008. It challenges the pro-flexibility literature, which attributes to labour relations reforms the prevention of larger job destruction in the recession and a larger reduction in unemployment during the subsequent expansion. Instead, we examine the role of wage devaluation in the operation of Okun’s law and gross domestic product, using an extended version of the Bhaduri–Marglin model. We find that wage devaluation has not significantly modified Okun’s law and that through its impact on income distribution, the unemployment rate rose by 1.9 percentage points. We therefore provide evidence for the negative effect of wage devaluation on gross domestic product and the positive effect on the unemployment rate. JEL Codes: C22, E11, E24

Suggested Citation

  • Paloma Villanueva & Luis Cárdenas, 2021. "Unemployment in Spain: The failure of wage devaluation," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 32(4), pages 552-574, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:ecolab:v:32:y:2021:i:4:p:552-574
    DOI: 10.1177/10353046211023807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10353046211023807
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/10353046211023807?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2014. "The role of the wage-productivity gap in economic activity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 436-459, July.
    2. Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The NAIRU, Aggregate Demand and Investment," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 66-94, February.
    3. David R. Howell, Miriam Rehm, 2009. "WP 2009-9 Unemployment Compensation and High European Unemployment: A Reassessment with New Benefit Indicators," SCEPA working paper series. 2009-9, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    4. Jochen Hartwig, 2014. "Testing Okun’s law with Swiss industry data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3581-3590, October.
    5. Samuel Bentolila & Juan Dolado & Juan Jimeno, 2012. "Reforming an insider-outsider labor market: the Spanish experience," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, December.
    6. Bruno Amable & Ken Mayhew, 2011. "Unemployment in the OECD," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 207-220.
    7. Sofia A. Perez & Manos Matsaganis, 2018. "The Political Economy of Austerity in Southern Europe," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 192-207, March.
    8. Ozlem Onaran & Thomas Obst, 2016. "Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states: the effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance and inflation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1517-1551.
    9. Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1413-1441, October.
    10. Eckhard Hein & Carsten Ochsen, 2003. "Regimes of Interest Rates, Income Shares, Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 404-433, November.
    11. David R. Howell & Miriam Rehm, 2009. "Unemployment compensation and high European unemployment: a reassessment with new benefit indicators," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 60-93, Spring.
    12. Hector Sala, 2009. "Institutions, capital stock and wage setting in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 779-789.
    13. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    14. Rowthorn, Robert, 1999. "Unemployment, Wage Bargaining and Capital-Labour Substitution," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 23(4), pages 413-425, July.
    15. Pasquale Tridico & Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2018. "Economic growth, welfare models and inequality in the context of globalisation," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 118-139, March.
    16. Robert VERGEER & Alfred KLEINKNECHT, 2014. "Do labour market reforms reduce labour productivity growth? A panel data analysis of 20 OECD countries (1960–2004)," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 365-393, September.
    17. C. Naastepad & Servaas Storm, 2006. "OECD demand regimes (1960-2000)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 211-246.
    18. John Kenneth Galbraith, 1983. "The Anatomy of Power," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 26-33, July.
    19. Simon DEAKIN & Jonas MALMBERG & Prabirjit SARKAR, 2014. "How do labour laws affect unemployment and the labour share of national income? The experience of six OECD countries, 1970–2010," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(1), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Andrew Glyn & David Howell & John Schmitt, 2006. "Labor Market Reforms: The Evidence Does Not Tell the Orthodox Tale," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 5-22.
    21. Baccaro, Lucio & Rei, Diego, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of Unemployment in OECD Countries: Does the Deregulatory View Hold Water?," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 527-569, July.
    22. Storm, Servaas & Naastepad, C. W. M., 2012. "Macroeconomics Beyond the NAIRU," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674062276, march.
    23. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    24. Servaas Storm & C.W.M. Naastepad, 2017. "Bhaduri–Marglin meet Kaldor–Marx: wages, productivity and investment," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 4-24, January.
    25. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    26. Robert J. Gordon, 2010. "Okun's Law and Productivity Innovations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 11-15, May.
    27. Doménech, Rafael & García, Juan Ramón & Ulloa, Camilo, 2018. "The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1200-1220.
    28. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2008. "Is The Nairu Theory A Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian Or A Marxist Theory?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 479-510, July.
    29. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Financialisation, income distribution and aggregate demand in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(4), pages 637-661.
    30. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Cardenas, 2025. "Why does Okun’s law change? Essay in econometric history," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 19(3), pages 621-659, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hein, Eckhard, 2025. "Kaleckian economics after Kalecki: A survey," IPE Working Papers 257/2025, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    3. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kalecki-Minsky view," Working Papers PKWP1512, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    5. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    6. João Alcobia & Ricardo Barradas, 2023. "Functional Income Distribution And Secular Stagnation In Europe: An Analysis Of The Post-Keynesian Growth Drivers," Working Papers REM 2023/0283, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Stirati, Antonella & Paternesi Meloni, Walter, 2021. "Unemployment and the wage share: a long-run exploration for major mature economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 330-352.
    8. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    9. Nishi, Hiroshi & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2020. "Distribution shocks in a Kaleckian model with hysteresis and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 465-479.
    10. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Garbellini, Nadia & Giammetti, Raffaele, 2018. "Structural labour market reforms, GDP growth and the functional distribution of income," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-45.
    11. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    12. Hein, Eckhard, 2022. "Varieties of demand and growth regimes: Post-Keynesian foundations," IPE Working Papers 196/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    13. Giovanni Covi, 2021. "Trade imbalances within the Euro Area: two regions, two demand regimes," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 181-221, February.
    14. Lucio Baccaro & Sinisa Hadziabdic, 2024. "Operationalizing growth models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 1325-1360, April.
    15. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Vinicius Curti Cícero & Daniele Tavani, 2024. "Institutional changes, effective demand and inequality: a structuralist model of secular stagnation," Working Papers PKWP2410, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    17. João Alcobia & Ricardo Barradas, 2022. "Falling Labour Share and the Anaemic Growth in Portugal: a Post-Keynesian Econometric Analysis," Working Papers REM 2022/0247, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Villanueva, Paloma & Cárdenas, Luis & Uxó, Jorge & Álvarez, Ignacio, 2020. "The role of internal devaluation in correcting external deficits: The case of Spain," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 282-296.
    19. Franz J. Prante, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Personal and Functional Income Inequality: Theory and Empirical Evidence for the US and Germany," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 65(3), pages 289-318.
    20. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ecolab:v:32:y:2021:i:4:p:552-574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.