IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rre/publsh/v41y2011i1p49-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt Overhang in the Eurozone: A Spatial Panel Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Romero, Alfredo A.

    (North Carolina A&T State University)

  • Burkey, Mark L.

    (North Carolina A&T State University)

Abstract

The debt overhang hypothesis suggests that high debt levels retard prospects for GDP growth. We investigate the impact that debt overhang has had on recent GDP growth in the Eurozone, paying particular attention to the spillover effects that debt has on neighboring countries. We argue that in the Eurozone spatial effects are of crucial importance in modeling regional GDP growth, and find that a Spatial Durbin model is appropriate. We find strong evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis, confirming a concave relationship that has been found in other studies where low levels of debt can have a positive impact on GDP, but at some level a “turning point” occurs. The present study finds that this turning point occurs at a lower Debt/GDP ratio than prior studies, and separates out the direct and indirect (spillover) effects on neighboring countries’ GDPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Romero, Alfredo A. & Burkey, Mark L., 2011. "Debt Overhang in the Eurozone: A Spatial Panel Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 41(1), pages 49-63, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:41:y:2011:i:1:p:49-63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.srsa.org/ojs/index.php/RRS/article/download/229/204
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Besley, Timothy & Case, Anne, 1995. "Incumbent Behavior: Vote-Seeking, Tax-Setting, and Yardstick Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 25-45, March.
    2. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    3. Enrique López‐Bazo & Esther Vayá & Manuel Artís, 2004. "Regional Externalities And Growth: Evidence From European Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 43-73, February.
    4. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    5. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 165-185, February.
    6. Siti Daud & Jan Podivinsky, 2011. "Debt–Growth Nexus: A Spatial Econometrics Approach for Developing Countries," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Jeremy Bulow & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "Sovereign Debt Repurchases: No Cure for Overhang," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1219-1235.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    10. Imbs, Jean & Ranciere, Romain, 2005. "The overhang hangover," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3673, The World Bank.
    11. Abdur Chowdhury, 2001. "The Impact of Financial Reform on Private Savings in Bangladesh," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Irani Arraiz & David M. Drukker & Harry H. Kelejian & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2010. "A Spatial Cliff‐Ord‐Type Model With Heteroskedastic Innovations: Small And Large Sample Results," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 592-614, May.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    14. Henry, Peter B. & Arslanalp, Serkan, 2003. "Helping the Poor to Help Themselves: Debt Relief or Aid?," Research Papers 1838, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    15. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Philipp Rother, 2011. "The Impact of Government Debt on Growth. An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1015-1029.
    16. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Sen, Swapan & Kasibhatla, Krishna M. & Stewart, David B., 2007. "Debt overhang and economic growth-the Asian and the Latin American experiences," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-11, March.
    18. Piras, Gianfranco, 2010. "sphet: Spatial Models with Heteroskedastic Innovations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 35(i01).
    19. Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
    20. Jan K. Brueckner, 2003. "Strategic Interaction Among Governments: An Overview of Empirical Studies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 175-188, April.
    21. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emil Georgiev & Emil Mihaylov, 2015. "Economic growth and the environment: reassessing the environmental Kuznets Curve for air pollution emissions in OECD countries," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 29-47, March.
    2. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    3. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    4. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naeem AKRAM*, 2017. "Role of Public Debt in Economic Growth of Sri Lanka: An ARDL Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(2), pages 189-212.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "External imbalances and growth," Working Papers 2017/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Paolo Postiglione & Alfredo Cartone & Domenica Panzera, 2020. "Economic Convergence in EU NUTS 3 Regions: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Roberto Ezcurra & Vicente Rios, 2015. "Volatility and Regional Growth in Europe: Does Space Matter?," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 344-368, September.
    5. Celbis, Mehmet Guney & Wong, Pui-hang & Guznajeva, Tatjana, 2018. "The Eurasian customs union and the economic geography of Belarus: A panel convergence approach," MERIT Working Papers 2018-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Túlio Cravo, 2011. "Regional Economic Growth and SMEs in Brazil: a Spatial Analysis (Submission for the Refereed Y-session Papers)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p508, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Naeem Akram, 2013. "Empirical examination of debt and growth nexus in South Asian countries," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 29-52, December.
    8. Guilherme Mendes Resende & Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho & Patrícia Alessandra Morita Sakowski, 2013. "Evaluating Multiple Spatial Dimensions of Economic Growth in Brazil Using Spatial Panel Data Models (1970 - 2000)," Discussion Papers 1830a, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    9. Mijiyawa, Abdoul’ Ganiou, 2024. "Does private share of public external debt support economic growth in developing countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Burhan Can Karahasan, 2020. "Can neighbor regions shape club convergence? Spatial Markov chain analysis for Turkey," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 117-131, August.
    11. Panagiotis Artelaris, 2021. "Regional economic growth and inequality in Greece," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 141-158, February.
    12. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    13. Valerien O. Pede & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Henri L. F. De Groot, 2007. "Technological Leadership, Human Capital and Economic Growth: a Spatial Econometric Analysis for US Counties, 1969-2003," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 87-88, pages 103-124.
    14. Seya, Hajime & Tsutsumi, Morito & Yamagata, Yoshiki, 2012. "Income convergence in Japan: A Bayesian spatial Durbin model approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 60-71.
    15. Guilherme Resende & Alexandre Carvalho & Patrícia Sakowski & Túlio Cravo, 2016. "Evaluating multiple spatial dimensions of economic growth in Brazil using spatial panel data models," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-31, January.
    16. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    17. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2018. "Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 222-238.
    18. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2018. "Does EU cohesion policy work? Theory and evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 386-423, March.
    19. Mauricio Rodrigo Talassino & Marcos Herrera, 2019. "Impacto de los efectos espaciales en la convergencia regional. Análisis departamental para la Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4154, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    20. Craigwell, Roland & Greenidge, Kevin & Thomas, Chrystal & Drakes, Lisa, 2012. "Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 40936, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spatial panel data; debt overhang;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:41:y:2011:i:1:p:49-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tammy Leonard & Lei Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.srsa.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.