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Comportements de fécondité des Québécoises, allocations familiales et impôts : résultats et simulations d’un modèle de choix discrets portant sur les années 1975-1987

Listed author(s):
  • Lefebvre, Pierre

    (Département des sciences économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal)

  • Brouillette, Liliane

    (Département des sciences économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal)

  • Felteau, Claude

    (Département des sciences économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal)

We suppose that women (couples), who are less than 40 years old, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation. The hierarchical process of decision defines different situations (eight) that have an option value. We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of "married" women in Québec to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method. Our estimation of female wage equations conditional on the number of children takes into account the problem of sample selectivity. Finally this empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal and tranfer policies in favor of families with dependent children on fertility, women labour force participation and the importance of spending costs for the two levels of government. On suppose que les femmes « mariées » (les couples) font face à trois types de décisions séquentielles : la décision de fécondité, la décision quant au nombre d’enfants et la décision de travailler ou de ne pas travailler. Ce processus hiérarchique de prise de décision définit différentes options (huit) caractérisées par leur valeur. Un modèle logistique de choix discrets évaluant la sensibilité des comportements des Québécoises à des changements dans les flux attendus de revenu liés à des modifications de la politique familiale gouvernementale (exemptions, crédits d’impôt, allocations familiales) a été estimé, à l’aide de micro-données provenant de 9 coupes transversales et portant sur les années 1975 à 1987, par une procédure de maximum de vraisemblance à information complète, en tenant compte du problème d’autosélection des échantillons. Les résultats empiriques du modèle montrent que la fiscalité personnelle conditionnelle à la présence des enfants et les allocations familiales influencent à la hausse la fécondité dans le cas des familles qui ont déjà des enfants. Ceci permet donc de simuler certains changements apportés aux politiques fiscales et de transferts en faveur des familles avec enfant(s) à charge et d’évaluer les effets sur la fécondité et la participation au marché du travail ainsi que l’ampleur des déboursés pour les deux paliers de gouvernements.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 70 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 (décembre)
Pages: 399-451

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:70:y:1994:i:4:p:399-451
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  1. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457 Elsevier.
  2. Ward, Michael P & Butz, William P, 1980. "Completed Fertility and Its Timing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 917-940, October.
  3. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A, 1989. "Efficient Estimation of Nested Logit Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 67-74, January.
  4. Trost, Robert P & Lee, Lung-Fei, 1984. "Technical Training and Earnings: A Polychotomous Choice Model with Selectivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 151-156, February.
  5. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1983. "Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 507-512, March.
  6. Chris Robinson & Nigel Tomes, 1982. "Family Labour Supply and Fertility: A Two-Regime Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 15(4), pages 706-734, November.
  7. Douglas E. Hyatt & William J. Milne, 1991. "Can Public Policy Affect Fertility?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(1), pages 77-85, March.
  8. van der Gaag, Jacques, 1982. "On measuring the cost of children," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1-2), pages 77-109.
  9. Heckman, James J & Walker, James R, 1990. "The Relationship between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1411-1441, November.
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