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L'importance des exclus de l'intégration monétaire en Europe

  • Philippe Martin
  • Claude Jessua

[eng] In contrast to the traditional analysis, this paper analyses the costs implied by the exclusion rather than by the inclusion of a country to the European Monetary Union (EMU). In a three-country model, we show that the monetary policy of the excluded country will be more expansionist and more counter-cyclical than the monetary policy of the EMU countries. This resembles a strategy of competitive depreciation. The country whose shocks are most symmetric to those of the exclu­ded country suffers most from this exclusion, through an increase in the variance of its production. We also examine the proposals to deal with the relations between EMU and non EMU countries of the EU. [fre] Contrairement à l'analyse traditionnelle, nous analysons les coûts associés non pas à l'inclusion mais à l'exclusion d'un pays de l'Union économique et moné­taire européenne ((JEM). Dans un modèle à trois pays, nous montrons que la poli­tique monétaire du pays exclu sera plus expansionniste et plus contre-cyclique que celle des pays de l'UEM, ce qui la rapproche d'une stratégie de dépréciation compétitive. Le pays dont les chocs sont les plus symétriques à ceux du pays exclu sera le plus touché par cette exclusion voyant la variance de sa production augmenter. Nous examinons aussi les diverses propositions de gestion des rela­tions entre l'UEM et les pays non UEM de l'UE.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/reco.1996.409819
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_3_409819
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 47 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 807-817

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_3_409819
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1996.409819
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/reco

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  1. Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 1995. "The Geography of Multi-Speed Europe," Working Papers 1995-10, CEPII research center.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry & Ghironi, Fabio, 1995. "European Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead," CEPR Discussion Papers 1217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Martin, Philippe, 1996. "A sequential approach to regional integration: The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 581-598, December.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9347 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Martin, Philippe, 1995. "Free-riding, convergence and two-speed monetary unification in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1345-1364, August.
  7. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Martin, Philippe, 1994. "Monetary policy and country size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 573-586, October.
  9. Artus, P., 1995. "L'Union monetaire sera-t-elle attrayante pour les pays peripheriques europeens?," Papers 1995-12/t, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
  10. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  11. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
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