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L'importance des exclus de l'intégration monétaire en Europe

  • Philippe Martin

[fre] Contrairement à l'analyse traditionnelle, nous analysons les coûts associés non pas à l'inclusion mais à l'exclusion d'un pays de l'Union économique et moné­taire européenne ((JEM). Dans un modèle à trois pays, nous montrons que la poli­tique monétaire du pays exclu sera plus expansionniste et plus contre-cyclique que celle des pays de l'UEM, ce qui la rapproche d'une stratégie de dépréciation compétitive. Le pays dont les chocs sont les plus symétriques à ceux du pays exclu sera le plus touché par cette exclusion voyant la variance de sa production augmenter. Nous examinons aussi les diverses propositions de gestion des rela­tions entre l'UEM et les pays non UEM de l'UE. [eng] In contrast to the traditional analysis, this paper analyses the costs implied by the exclusion rather than by the inclusion of a country to the European Monetary Union (EMU). In a three-country model, we show that the monetary policy of the excluded country will be more expansionist and more counter-cyclical than the monetary policy of the EMU countries. This resembles a strategy of competitive depreciation. The country whose shocks are most symmetric to those of the exclu­ded country suffers most from this exclusion, through an increase in the variance of its production. We also examine the proposals to deal with the relations between EMU and non EMU countries of the EU.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1995-08.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-08
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