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L'importance des exclus de l'intégration monétaire en Europe

  • Philippe Martin

Contrairement à l'analyse traditionnelle, nous analysons les coûts associés non pas à l'inclusion mais à l'exclusion d'un pays de l'Union économique et monétaire européenne (UEM). Dans un modèle à trois pays, nous montrons que la politique monétaire du pays exclu sera plus expansionniste et plus contre-cyclique que celle des pays de l'UEM, ce qui la rapproche d'une stratégie de dépréciation compétitive. Le pays dont les chocs sont les plus symétriques à ceux du pays exclu sera le plus touché par cette exclusion voyant la variance de sa production augmenter. Nous examinons aussi les diverses propositions de gestion des relations entre l'UEM et les pays non UEM de VUE.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1995-08.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1995-08
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  1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9347 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Martin, Philippe, 1995. "Free-riding, convergence and two-speed monetary unification in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1345-1364, August.
  3. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  4. Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 1995. "The Geography of Multi-Speed Europe," Sciences Po publications DP1292, Sciences Po.
  5. Artus, P., 1995. "L'Union monetaire sera-t-elle attrayante pour les pays peripheriques europeens?," Papers 1995-12/t, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
  6. Martin, Philippe, 1996. "A sequential approach to regional integration: The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 581-598, December.
  7. Martin, Philippe, 1994. "Monetary policy and country size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 573-586, October.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  9. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December.
  11. Eichengreen, Barry & Ghironi, Fabio, 1995. "European Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead," CEPR Discussion Papers 1217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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