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Régimes de croissance pour les Etats-Unis, 1890-1991

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  • Michel Juillard

Abstract

[fre] L'article étudie l'existence de différents régimes de croissance pour l'écono­mie des États-Unis depuis 1890. Trois modèles sont envisagés : un modèle de type Solow à progrès technique déterministe, un modèle AK, et un modèle à pro­grès technique stochastique. L'auteur montre que ces trois modèles peuvent être présentés comme différentes restrictions sur les paramètres d'un modèle à cor­rection d'erreurs. L'estimation de ce dernier et des relations de cointégration cor­respondantes donne la préférence au modèle à progrès technique stochastique, mais on conclut à l'existence de deux régimes différents : l'un avant 1929, l'autre après 1951. [eng] Growth regimes for the U.S., 1890-1991 . . This paper discusses the existence of several growth regimes for the U.S. since 1890. Three possible models are presented : a Solow type model with deterministic technical change an AK type model and model with stochastic technical change On can show that these models are restrictions on the parameters of an error correction model The estimation of the latter and of cointegration relations gives the preference to the model with stochastic technical change However the parameter values are different before 1929 and after 1951

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Juillard, 1995. "Régimes de croissance pour les Etats-Unis, 1890-1991," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 847-856.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409697
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1995.409697
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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