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Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses

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  • Tancrède Voituriez

Abstract

[fre] L'étude de la dynamique des prix fournit des informations intéressantes sur les conséquences à attendre d'un changement des structures concurrentielles et d'une ouverture des marchés sur l'instabilité. Nous avons mené cette étude sur le marché mondial des huiles. Si l'hypothèse d'un pur chaos déterministe ne peut être acceptée, la présence d'une dynamique non linéaire très forte est démontrée. Elle confirme l'hypothèse d'une instabilité endogène, autogénérée, une instabilité propre au fonctionnement du marché. [eng] Nonlinear dynamics in world vegetable oils prices . Price dynamics analysis provides key information on the possible consequences one can expect from the opening up and the liberalization of agricultural markets. The potential role of chaotic dynamics in generating world vegetable oils prices is investigated here with more than 1400 weekly data. The evidence of a pure chaotic determinism cannot be accepted, while the proof of nonlinear dynamics in prices remains strong and casts some doubt on the market's ability to find out its equilibrium position and stabilize by itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Tancrède Voituriez, 1998. "Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 22-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1998_num_243_1_4989
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1998.4989
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1998.4989
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