IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ersfer/354401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses

Author

Listed:
  • Voituriez, Tancrède

Abstract

Price dynamics analysis provides key information on the possible consequences one can expect from the opening up and the liberalization of agricultural markets. The potential role of chaotic dynamics in generating world vegetable oils prices is investigated here with more than 1400 weekly data. The evidence of a pure chaotic determinism cannot be accepted, while the proof of nonlinear dynamics in prices remains strong and casts some doubt on the market's ability to find out its equilibrium position and stabilize by itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Voituriez, Tancrède, 1998. "Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses," Économie rurale, French Society of Rural Economics (SFER Société Française d'Economie Rurale), vol. 243.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ersfer:354401
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.354401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/354401/files/ecoru_0013-0559_1998_num_243_1_4989.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.354401?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Fulponi, Linda, 1994. "La variabilité des prix internationaux de base : les marchés sont-ils efficaces," Économie rurale, French Society of Rural Economics (SFER Société Française d'Economie Rurale), vol. 219.
    3. Nishimura Kazuo & Sorger Gerhard, 1996. "Optimal Cycles and Chaos: A Survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    6. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
    7. Gregory P. Decoster & Walter C. Labys & Douglas W. Mitchell, 1992. "Evidence of chaos in commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 291-305, June.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    9. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    10. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    11. Benhabib Jess, 1996. "On Cycles and Chaos in Economics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, April.
    12. Nowrouz Kohzadi & Milton S. Boyd, 1995. "Testing for Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics in Cattle Prices," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(3), pages 475-484, November.
    13. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1991. "On Nonlinear Dynamics: The Case of the Pork Cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 819-828.
    14. Boussard, Jean-Marc, 1996. "When risk generates chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 433-446, May.
    15. Linda Fulponi, 1994. "La variabilité des prix internationaux de base : les marchés sont-ils efficaces ?," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 219(1), pages 16-23.
    16. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tancrède Voituriez, 1998. "Dynamique non linéaire du marché mondial des huiles et des graisses," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 22-29.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    3. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    4. Marisa Faggini & Bruna Bruno & Anna Parziale, 2019. "Does Chaos Matter in Financial Time Series Analysis?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 18-24.
    5. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 123-137, August.
    6. Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    7. Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
    8. repec:rri:wpaper:200501 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. P. Kearns & A.R. Pagan, 1993. "Australian Stock Market Volatility: 1875–1987," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(2), pages 163-178, June.
    10. Gerard H. Kuper & Daan P. van Soest, 2006. "Does Oil Price Uncertainty Affect Energy Use?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1), pages 55-78, January.
    11. Russell, Bill & Chowdhury, Rosen Azad, 2013. "Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-38.
    12. Aggarwal, Divya, 2019. "Do bitcoins follow a random walk model?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 15-22.
    13. Bhaskar Bagchi & Biswajit Paul, 2023. "Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Stock Markets and Currency Exchange Rates in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Evidence from G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    14. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1997. "Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance," Working papers 9706, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    15. Issler, João Victor, 1999. "Estimating and forecasting the volatility of Brazilian finance series using arch models (Preliminary Version)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 347, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    16. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, Enero-Abr.
    17. Mihaela Craioveanu & Eric Hillebrand, 2012. "Level changes in volatility models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 277-308, May.
    18. Ping-Yu Chen & Chia-Lin Chang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-37, December.
    19. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gupta, Rangan & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "Price and volatility linkages between international REITs and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    21. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2021. "The South African–United States sovereign bond spread and its association with macroeconomic fundamentals," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 499-525, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ersfer:354401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sferrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.