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Stockage des déchets radioactifs et incertitude

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  • Alain Ayong Le Kama
  • Mouez Fodha

Abstract

[fre] L’objectif de ce travail est l’étude du traitement optimal des déchets nucléaires. Nous analysons la politique d’enfouissement des déchets radioactifs en prenant en considération un risque futur de déstockage accidentel des déchets préalablement enfouis. Nous montrons que, sous certaines conditions, l’énergie nucléaire peut être une solution de long-terme, malgré l’accumulation des déchets radioactifs. Cette solution nécessite en revanche l’enfouissement d ’ une part constante de la production de déchets nucléaires. L’incertitude sur la sécurité des sites d’enfouissement des déchets conduit naturellement le planificateur social à choisir un taux optimal d’enfouissement des déchets plus faible que celui en vigueur en l’absence de risque. Nous montrons en outre que, malgré cette règle de prudence, le stock total de déchets enfouis peut s’accroître. [eng] This paper examines optimal radioactive-waste burial policy under an uncertainty : the possibility that an accident might occur in the future. The framework is an optimal growth model with pollution disutility. We show that nuclear power may be a long-term solution for world energy demand. Nevertheless, under uncertainty, the social planner will decide to reduce the waste-burial rate, but the changes in consumption levels – and hence in buried-waste levels – are ambiguous. Depending on the economy’s balanced growth rate and the preference parameters, the optimal amount of buried waste may increase despite the risk of a future accident.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Ayong Le Kama & Mouez Fodha, 2009. "Stockage des déchets radioactifs et incertitude," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 190(4), pages 39-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2009_num_190_4_7993
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2009.7993
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2009.7993
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    1. Heal, Geoffrey M., 1993. "The optimal use of exhaustible resources," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 855-880, Elsevier.
    2. Alain Ayong Le Kama & Katheline Schubert, 2006. "Ressources renouvelables et incertitude sur les préférences des générations futures," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(2), pages 229-250.
    3. Alain Le Kama & Katheline Schubert, 2004. "Growth, Environment and Uncertain Future Preferences," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(1), pages 31-53, May.
    4. Smulders, Sjak & Gradus, Raymond, 1996. "Pollution abatement and long-term growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 505-532, November.
    5. John Hartwick, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources in a Two Sector Model," Working Paper 281, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Alain Ayong Le Kama, 2001. "Preservation and exogenous uncertain future preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 18(3), pages 745-752.
    7. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    8. Christian Gollier & Jean-Guy Devezeaux de Lavergne, 2001. "Analyse quantitative de la réversibilité du stockage des déchets nucléaires : valorisation des déchets," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 149(3), pages 1-13.
    9. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    10. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2006. "Can Nuclear Power solve the Global Warming Problem?," IDEI Working Papers 381, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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    Cited by:

    1. Veronique Thireau, 2014. "Quel traitement des déchets par l'analyse économique ?," Post-Print hal-01221380, HAL.

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