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Les tarifications au coût marginal versus coût moyen face à des chocs climatiques au Sénégal : un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général calculable appliqué à l’eau

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  • Anne Briand

Abstract

[fre] Le modèle simule sur un horizon de vingt ans, une première phase d’accroissement de la disponibilité de la ressource en eau et une seconde phase marquée par l’apparition de déficits hydriques au regard de l’évolution de la demande (croissance démographique). Les résultats obtenus montrent que la mise en place d’une tarification au coût marginal, couplée à une subvention de l'État assurant la survie du secteur de production d’eau, permet à long terme d’amortir le choc de pénurie de la ressource puisque le PIB, l’investissement et le bien-être s’accroissent, le chômage baisse, et les secteurs du riz pluvial, du maraîchage et de la distribution d’eau potable se développent malgré tout. Tandis qu’en maintenant sa politique actuelle de tarification au coût moyen (visant l’équilibre budgétaire du secteur) l’économie de long terme tombe en récession avec un fort recul de la production agricole, une forte dégradation du bien-être et une hausse du chômage. [eng] The model simulates two successive phases over a 20-year horizon : the first is characterized by an increase in water-resource availability reflecting the Senegalese government’s supply policies ; the second is marked by hydrological deficits due to higher demand fueled by demographic growth. The results show that marginal-cost water pricing – with a subsidy ensuring the survival of the water-production sector – makes it possible to absorb the shock of the resource shortage in the long run. GDP, investment, and welfare increase. Unemployment declines and the rainfed-rice, market-gardening, and drinking-water distribution sectors expand. In contrast, the current policy of average-cost water pricing – which aims to balance the sector’s budget – leads to economic recession in the long term : agricultural production plunges, welfare drops sharply, and unemployment rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne Briand, 2008. "Les tarifications au coût marginal versus coût moyen face à des chocs climatiques au Sénégal : un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général calculable appliqué à l’eau," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 185(4), pages 103-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_185_4_7840
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2008.7840
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7840
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