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Que vaut la flexibilité des choix individuels de transport ? Une étude de cas expérimental

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  • Sabrina Hammiche
  • Laurent Denant-Boemont

Abstract

[fre] Cette recherche est une étude expérimentale de choix de transport en avenir risqué. Il s’agit de tester un modèle de choix dynamique appliqué à un cas pratique de concurrence modale entre un système de transport existant (l’autoroute) supposé flexible et un système innovant (l’autoroute ferroviaire) supposé irréversible. Le modèle théorique est construit sur les données disponibles en France en matière de coût généralisé de transport. Il est ensuite testé par le biais d’un jeu expérimental. Ce travail montre que les joueurs valorisent la flexibilité quel que soit le niveau de prix ou d’information. Par contre, un test d’une hypothèse de surréaction à l’information montre que les joueurs ont tendance à sous-réagir au signal prix et modifient moins leurs choix que ne le prédit le modèle. [eng] Our article reports an experimental study on the choice between rail and road freight transportation. We assume that the rail option involves some irreversibility, whereas the road choice is flexible. Building on this assumption about alternative individual choices, we construct a real-option model where traffic levels for each infrastructure are risky. We test these theoretical predictions. The important feature of our exercise is that we calibrate experimental payoffs on data about time cost, operating costs, and infrastructure tariffs in French transportation. The results are the following : (1) as the model stands, price levels and the information level are significant determinants of choice ; (2) subjects overreact to infrastructure price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabrina Hammiche & Laurent Denant-Boemont, 2008. "Que vaut la flexibilité des choix individuels de transport ? Une étude de cas expérimental," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 182(1), pages 97-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_182_1_7754
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2008.7754
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7754
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