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Les stabilisateurs automatiques en France

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  • Raphaël Espinoza

Abstract

[fre] Cet article estime le pouvoir des stabilisateurs automatiques à l’aide du modèle français MESANGE. Après un choc de demande, l’atténuation de l’activité est modérée la première année (environ 10 %) mais plus conséquente la deuxième année (20 %). La TVA, les impôts sur la production et les allocations de chômage sont les postes les plus stabilisants. L’effet stabilisateur dépend également du profil dynamique de la perturbation et peut varier du simple au double en fonction du profil. Les résultats pour les chocs d’offre dépendent de ses implications sur le PIB potentiel. Si les finances publiques sont bénéfiques après une hausse de la productivité, elles auraient aggravé de 10 % la volatilité de l’activité due aux variations des cours du pétrole entre 1990 et 2000. [eng] This paper uses the MESANGE model to estimate the strength of automatic stabilizers. Following a demand shock, the attenuation of GDP volatility is moderate (10 %) in the first year, but greater (20 %) in the second year. The items with the greatest stabilizing influence are VAT, taxes on production, and unemployment benefits. The stabilizing effect also depends on the dynamic profile of the disturbance , and can vary by a factor of two depending on the profile. For supply shocks, the results depend on the implications for potential GDP. Public finances contribute to adjustment after a positive productivity shift, but appear to have increased GDP volatility by 10 percent due to oil-price variations between 1990 and 2000.

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  • Raphaël Espinoza, 2007. "Les stabilisateurs automatiques en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 177(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_177_1_7975
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2007.7975
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2007.7975
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