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Les stabilisateurs automatiques en France

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  • Raphaël A. Espinoza

Abstract

This paper uses the MESANGE model to estimate the strength of automatic stabilizers. Following a demand shock, the attenuation of GDP volatility is moderate (10%) in the first year, but greater (20%) in the second year. The items with the greatest stabilizing influence are VAT, taxes on production, and unemployment benefits. The stabilizing effect also depends on the dynamic profile of the disturbance, and can vary by a factor of two depending on the profile. For supply shocks, the results depend on the implications for potential GDP. Public finances contribute to adjustment after a positive productivity shift, but appear to have increased GDPvolatility by 10 percent due to oil-price variations between 1990 and 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaël A. Espinoza, 2007. "Les stabilisateurs automatiques en France," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_177_0001
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