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Croissance, transferts et inégalités entre générations

Listed author(s):
  • Didier Blanchet
  • Jean-Alain Monfort

[eng] Growth, transfers and intergenerational inequalities. Retrospective data for income by age and generation are combined with the results of a pension-scheme simulation model to trace long-term living-standard trajectories by cohort, to discuss the existence of " favoured" generation phenomena and analyse the impact by age and generation of various pension reform scenarios. Identification of favoured generations presupposes a relative approach to the concept of welfare and depends on the definition chosen for this concept of relative welfare. If we measure welfare by the instantaneous relative position on the income hierarchy, we observe that some generations have benefited by a relatively high standard of living during their working lives and by the rise in replacement rates for their retirement. If these rates are maintained, more recent generations will enjoy only the latter advantage. If they fall and if pensions are indexed less generously, we shall return to inequality profiles by age comparable to those of the 1950s and 1960s. This paper examines the potentially compensatory role of prefunded supplementary pension schemes. However, it does not discuss the role that might be played by a rise in the age of retirement. [fre] Des données rétrospectives de revenu par âge et génération sont couplées avec les résultats d’un modèle de simulation du système de retraite pour retracer des trajectoires longues de niveau de vie par cohorte, pour discuter l’existence de phénomènes de générations « favorisées » et pour analyser les conséquences par âge et génération de différents scénarios de réforme des retraites. L’identification de générations favorisées suppose une approche relative de la notion de bien-être et dépend de la définition choisie pour cette notion de bien-être relatif. Si l’on mesure le bien-être par la position relative instantanée dans la hiérarchie des revenus, on observe que certaines générations ont bénéficié d’un haut niveau de vie relatif durant leurs années d’activité et de la montée des taux de remplacement retraite pour leurs périodes de retraite. Si ces taux sont maintenus, les générations plus récentes ne bénéficieraient plus que du second de ces deux avantages. S’ils sont réduits et si les retraites bénéficient d’indexations moins généreuses, on retournerait à des profils d’inégalités par âge comparables à ceux des années 1950 à 1960. L’article examine le rôle correcteur éventuel de compléments de retraites préfinancés. En revanche, il ne discute pas le rôle que pourrait jouer un relèvement de l’âge de la retraite.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.2002.6387
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_2002_num_154_3_6387
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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 154 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 79-94

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2002_num_154_3_6387
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2002.6387
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Didier Blanchet & Pierre Marioni, 1996. "L'activité après 55 ans : évolutions récentes et éléments de prospective," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 300(1), pages 105-119.
  2. Elisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale: une projection comparée pour six pays de l'Union Européenne," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2885, Sciences Po.
  3. Henri Sterdyniak & Gaël Dupont & Alexis Dantec, 1999. "Les retraites en France : que faire ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 68(1), pages 19-81.
  4. Thierry Chauveau & Rahim Loufir, 1995. "L'avenir des régimes publics de retraite dans les pays du G7," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(1), pages 49-103.
  5. Didier Blanchet, 1992. "Retraites et croissance à long terme. Un essai de simulation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(4), pages 1-16.
  6. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1987_42n1_0038 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Ottilia Rouguet & Pierre Villa, 2000. "Le passage des retraites de la répartition à la capitalisation obligatoire : des simulations à l'aide s'une maquette calibrée," Working Papers 2000-02, CEPII research center.
  8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2885 is not listed on IDEAS
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