Croissance, transferts et inégalités entre générations

Retrospective data for income by age and generation are combined with the results of a pension-scheme simulation model to trace long-term living-standard trajectories by cohort, to discuss the existence of "favoured" generation phenomena and analyse the impact by age and generation of various pension reform scenarios. Identification of favoured generations presupposes a relative approach to the concept of welfare and depends on the definition chosen for this concept of relative welfare. If we measure welfare by the instantaneous relative position on the income hierarchy, we observe that some generations have benefited by a relatively high standard of living during their working lives and by the rise in replacement rates for their retirement. If these rates are maintained, more recent generations will enjoy only the latter advantage. If they fall and if pensions are indexed less generously, we shall return to inequality profiles by age comparable to those of the 1950s and 1960s. This paper examines the potentially compensatory role of prefunded supplementary pension schemes. However, it does not discuss the role that might be played by a rise in the age of retirement.