IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/ecoprv/ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7679.html

Impact de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation en Tunisie : simulations à l'aide d'un modèle à générations imbriquées

Author

Listed:
  • Mehdi Ben Braham

Abstract

[fre] Nous présentons dans ce papier l’impact des évolutions démographiques sur l’équilibre financier du système de retraite en Tunisie. Il s’agit par la suite d’analyser, à l’aide d’un modèle à générations imbriquées en économie fermée, l’impact de deux types de réforme introduisant une dose de capitalisation, parallèlement au système par répartition existant. Le premier scénario de réforme correspond à l’introduction d’un fonds de réserve, le second à la mise en place d’un pilier capitalisé. Nous mesurons l’impact sur le niveau d’épargne et de consommation. Le modèle met en évidence un effet d’éviction important qui limite l’impact sur l’épargne. Les simulations montrent que le poids de la réforme est davantage supporté par certaines générations. [eng] This paper discusses the impact of aging on the financial equilibrium of the Tunisian retirement system and the macroeconomic implications of reform, including a partial switch to pre-funding. We use a stylized , closed economy and an overlapping-generation model to analyze the impact of the introduction of a multi-pillar system combining the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and pre-funded approaches (including temporarily and permanently pre-funded plans). The analysis focuses on (1) the response of saving to the reform at the aggregate level and (2) cohort-specific accumulation and consumption profiles. The reform generates a strong crowding-out effect, restraining capital accumulation. Our simulations also show that the burden of the reform is spread unevenly among cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Ben Braham, 2007. "Impact de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation en Tunisie : simulations à l'aide d'un modèle à générations imbriquées," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 189-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7679
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2007.7679
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2007.7679
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecop.2007.7679
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7679
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ecop.2007.7679?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "Introduction to "Privatizing Social Security"," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Didier Blanchet, 1992. "Retraites et croissance à long terme. Un essai de simulation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(4), pages 1-16.
    3. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 265-311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "Privatizing Social Security," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld98-1, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pascal Belan, 2001. "Transition vers un système par capitalisation dans un modèle de croissance endogène," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(6), pages 1205-1226.
    2. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2017. "On financing retirement with an aging population," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 75-115, March.
    3. Mehdi Ben Braham, 2006. "Pension reform in emerging countries: Simulations on the Tunisian case," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-06, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    4. Frassi, Benedetta & Gnecco, Giorgio & Pammolli, Fabio & Wen, Xue, 2019. "Intragenerational redistribution in a funded pension system," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 271-303, April.
    5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    6. Georgios Symeonidis & Platon Tinios & Panos Xenos, 2020. "Enhancing Pension Adequacy While Reducing the Fiscal Budget and Creating Essential Capital for Domestic Investments and Growth: Analysing the Risks and Outcomes in the Case of Greece," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "El sistema de pensiones contributivas en España: Cuestiones básicas y perspectivas en el medio plazo," Working Papers 2000-15, FEDEA.
    8. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    9. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Incentivos y desigualdad en el sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación," Working Papers 2002-13, FEDEA.
    10. De la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 349.
    11. Hans Fehr & Christian Habermann & Fabian Kindermann, 2008. "Social Security with Rational and Hyperbolic Consumers," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 884-903, October.
    12. Violante, Giovanni L. & Attanasio, Orazio P., 2000. "The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1313, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. de la Torre, Augusto & Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Stock market development under globalization: Whither the gains from reforms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1731-1754, June.
    14. Bertrand Wigniolle & Philippe Michel & Pascal Belan, 2002. "Pension funds and capital accumulation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8.
    15. Pascal Belan & Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2007. "Capital Accumulation, Welfare, and the Emergence of Pension-Fund Activism," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 63(1), pages 54-82, March.
    16. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    17. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2001. "Blaupause für eine nachhaltige Rentenreform in Deutschland," Discussion Papers 599, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    18. Raj Chetty, 2015. "Behavioral Economics and Public Policy: A Pragmatic Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 1-33, May.
    19. Bertranou, Fabio M., 2001. "Pension Reform and Gender Gaps in Latin America: What are the Policy Options?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 911-923, May.
    20. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "Optimal savings for retirement: The role of individual accounts and disaster expectations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7679. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.