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The Euro Crisis and Contagion among Central and Eastern European Currencies: Recommendations for Avoiding Lending in a Safe Haven Currency such as CHF

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  • Gábor Dávid Kiss
  • Tamás Schuszter

Abstract

This study analyses the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies by examining the statistical characteristics of the Swiss franc as well as the ECB monetary policy in order to indicate shocks in these markets between 2002 and 2013. The abundance of monetary easing decisions can be used as a viable sign of market misbehaviour in addition to the low probability of extreme exchange rate fluctuations. Indeed, the temporal distribution of extreme currency fluctuations provides vital information about the nature of the recent crisis. Contagions can be defined as increased correlations during periods of crisis, while divergence means a significant decrease in this regard. Methodologically, common movements in this study were calculated by using DCC-GARCH modelling. The findings of this study underline the special features of the Swiss franc exchange rate, notably that its extreme fluctuations can be managed by using swap agreements and that it tended towards divergences during the crisis era. These results support the idea of avoiding lending in reserve currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Dávid Kiss & Tamás Schuszter, 2015. "The Euro Crisis and Contagion among Central and Eastern European Currencies: Recommendations for Avoiding Lending in a Safe Haven Currency such as CHF," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(6), pages 678-698.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:6:id:530:p:678-698
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.530
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    extreme interval; DCC-GARCH; currency market; contagion; CEE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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