IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0086468.html

Bayesian Dynamical Systems Modelling in the Social Sciences

Author

Listed:
  • Shyam Ranganathan
  • Viktoria Spaiser
  • Richard P Mann
  • David J T Sumpter

Abstract

Data arising from social systems is often highly complex, involving non-linear relationships between the macro-level variables that characterize these systems. We present a method for analyzing this type of longitudinal or panel data using differential equations. We identify the best non-linear functions that capture interactions between variables, employing Bayes factor to decide how many interaction terms should be included in the model. This method punishes overly complicated models and identifies models with the most explanatory power. We illustrate our approach on the classic example of relating democracy and economic growth, identifying non-linear relationships between these two variables. We show how multiple variables and variable lags can be accounted for and provide a toolbox in R to implement our approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyam Ranganathan & Viktoria Spaiser & Richard P Mann & David J T Sumpter, 2014. "Bayesian Dynamical Systems Modelling in the Social Sciences," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0086468
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086468
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0086468
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0086468&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0086468?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    2. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    4. World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4367, April.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    6. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    7. Rajiv Sethi & Rohini Somanathan, 2004. "Inequality and Segregation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1296-1321, December.
    8. Duncan J. Watts & Peter Sheridan Dodds, 2007. "Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 441-458, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ranganathan, Shyam & Bali Swain, Ranjula & Sumpter, David, 2014. "A Dynamical Systems Approach To Modeling Human Development," Working Paper Series 2014:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    2. Julia Balla & Sihao Huang & Owen Dugan & Rumen Dangovski & Marin Soljačić, 2025. "AI-assisted discovery of quantitative and formal models in social science," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Viktoria Spaiser & Shyam Ranganathan & Richard P Mann & David J T Sumpter, 2014. "The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-11, June.
    4. Orazio Angelini & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2016. "The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties," Papers 1610.00274, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schneider Ulrike & Wagner Martin, 2012. "Catching Growth Determinants with the Adaptive Lasso," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 71-85, February.
    2. Viktoria Spaiser & Shyam Ranganathan & Richard P Mann & David J T Sumpter, 2014. "The Dynamics of Democracy, Development and Cultural Values," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-11, June.
    3. Tausch, Arno & Ghymers, Christian, 2011. "Los católicos globales. El primer sondeo global del catolicismo mundial según el “World Values Survey” y el “European Social Survey” [Global Catholics. The first global opinion survey of global Catholicism according to the 'World Values Survey' an," MPRA Paper 33228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Doris A. Oberdabernig & Stefan Humer & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2018. "Democracy, Geography and Model Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 154-185, May.
    5. Björn R H Blomqvist & Richard P Mann & David J T Sumpter, 2018. "Using Bayesian dynamical systems, model averaging and neural networks to determine interactions between socio-economic indicators," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, May.
    6. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    7. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    8. Peter Jensen, 2010. "Testing the null of a low dimensional growth model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 193-215, February.
    9. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2009. "Growth Regressions, Principal Components and Frequentist Model Averaging," Economics Series 236, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    10. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2009. "Democratic Capital: The Nexus of Political and Economic Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 88-126, July.
    11. Emilia Justyna Powell & Steven Christian McDowell & Robert O’Brien & Julia Oksasoglu, 2021. "Islam-based legal language and state governance: democracy, strength of the judiciary and human rights," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 376-412, September.
    12. Pettersson, Jan, 2003. "Democracy, Consolidation and Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2004.
    13. Mario COCCIA, 2020. "How does institutional change of democratization affect the origin and diffusion of technological innovation across countries?," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, EconSciences Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 60-91, June.
    14. Axel Dreher, 2002. "Does Globalization Affect Growth?," Development and Comp Systems 0210004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jun 2003.
    15. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    16. Kabwe Omoyi Fanny, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Political Regime Type in African Sub-Regions," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 153-165, June.
    17. Berhanu Nega, 2011. "Short Changing the Value of Democracy for Economic Development in Africa," Forum for Social Economics, Springer;The Association for Social Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 313-334, October.
    18. Olivier Parent & Abdallah Zouache, 2009. "Geographical Features vs. Institutional Factors: New Perspectives on The Growth of Africa and Middle-East," Working Papers 490, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2009.
    19. Florencia Torche & Luis F. Lopez-Calva, 2013. "Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 409-435, December.
    20. Berhanu Nega, 2011. "Short Changing the Value of Democracy for Economic Development in Africa," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 313-334, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0086468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.