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Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab


  • Uzma Hanif

    (Department of Economics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore)

  • Shabib Haider Syed

    (Department of Economics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore)

  • Rafique Ahmad

    (Universities of Punjab and Bahawalpur)

  • Kauser Abdullah Malik

    (Department of Biological Sciences, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore)


The main objective of the study is quantification of the impact of change in climate normals in order to have a viable and sustained development of the agricultural sector both at the regional and country level. A one-way fixed effect panel model for eleven districts over the time horizon 1970-2009 has been estimated with the FGLS panel regression technique. The results of the panel regression of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, are derived from data of Punjab agricultural land. The inclusion of the Kharif and Rabi seasons climate variables are important components of the assessment model, as these have not been taken into consideration in any previous assessment. The results show that the Kharif and Rabi variables (seasonal variables in the context of the sowing and harvesting time-periods) are significantly related to land price per acre. The study also confirms the general hypothesis that climate change impinges considerably on the price of agricultural land, which is a long-run variable for net revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Uzma Hanif & Shabib Haider Syed & Rafique Ahmad & Kauser Abdullah Malik, 2010. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 771-798.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:771-798

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ruslana Rachel Palatnik & Roberto Roson, 2009. "Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies," Working Papers 2009.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    3. Sharachch & ra Lele & Iswar Patil & Shrinivas Badiger & Ajit Menon & Rajeev Kumar, "undated". "The Economic Impact of Forest Hydrological Services on Local Communities: A Case Study from the Western Ghats of India," Working papers 36, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    4. Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    5. D Maddison, 2000. "A hedonic analysis of agricultural land prices in England and Wales," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 519-532, December.
    6. Francesco Bosello & Jian Zhang, 2005. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture," Working Papers 2005.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    1. repec:ksp:journ5:v:5:y:2018:i:1:p:85-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:pid:journl:v:56:y:2017:i:2:p:163-187 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Afzal, Muhammad & Ahmed, Tanvir & Ahmed, Gulzar, 2016. "Empirical Assessment of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops of Punjab, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 70958, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2016.

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