IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v12y2025i1d10.1057_s41599-025-05145-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing a quantitative analytical framework for carbon neutrality in tourism-dependent regions

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Li

    (Hainan University)

  • Yun Tong

    (Hainan University)

Abstract

Achieving carbon neutrality in tourism-dependent regions poses a critical challenge for global climate governance. However, existing studies lack frameworks to analyze the linkages between tourism and regional carbon neutrality. This study fills the gap by developing an interdisciplinary quantitative framework integrating Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition and system dynamics modeling. It systematically examines tourism-carbon neutrality interactions across industry, residents, land use, and Carbon Capture and Storage. Using Hainan Island (2010–2021) as a case study, the simulations reveal the following: (1) fluctuating growth in net emissions alongside declining carbon intensity; (2) the tertiary and secondary industries are the main emitters, with the former decarbonizing faster and the latter lagging behind in the green transition, while the primary industry is at a low level of both carbon emissions and carbon intensity; (3) residential emissions are driven by urbanization and living standards; (4) land-use carbon sinks decline slightly despite urban green expansion, due to construction land encroachment; (5) sensitivity analysis shows tourism growth in Hainan currently increases regional emissions but reduces carbon intensity. The novelty of this study lies in mapping dynamic relationships through a coupled approach and providing tools for destination-specific decarbonization strategies. Practical implications emphasize the need for integrated policies that balance tourism growth, industrial decarbonization, residential planning, and ecosystem restoration. By aligning economic objectives with climate resilience, this approach advances climate governance for policymakers in tourism-dependent regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Li & Yun Tong, 2025. "Developing a quantitative analytical framework for carbon neutrality in tourism-dependent regions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-05145-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-05145-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-025-05145-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-025-05145-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yun Tong & Rui Zhang & Biao He, 2022. "The Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Tourism Economy and Its Formation Mechanism: An Empirical Study of China’s 92 Tourism-Dependent Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Jiekuan Zhang & Yan Zhang, 2020. "Low-carbon tourism system in an urban destination," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1688-1704, July.
    3. Lee, Jung Wan & Brahmasrene, Tantatape, 2013. "Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 69-76.
    4. Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
    5. Wu, Yue-Fang & Hannam, Kevin & Xu, Hong-Gang, 2018. "Reconceptualising home in seasonal Chinese tourism mobilities," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 71-80.
    6. Scott, Daniel & Gössling, Stefan, 2022. "A review of research into tourism and climate change - Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism and climate change," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    7. Ya-Yen Sun & Futu Faturay & Manfred Lenzen & Stefan Gössling & James Higham, 2024. "Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Feng, Y.Y. & Chen, S.Q. & Zhang, L.X., 2013. "System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 44-52.
    9. Frank Biermann & Thomas Hickmann & Carole-Anne Sénit & Marianne Beisheim & Steven Bernstein & Pamela Chasek & Leonie Grob & Rakhyun E. Kim & Louis J. Kotzé & Måns Nilsson & Andrea Ordóñez Llanos & Chu, 2022. "Scientific evidence on the political impact of the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 795-800, September.
    10. Sinha, Avik & Tiwari, Sunil & Saha, Tanaya, 2024. "Modeling the behavior of renewable energy market: Understanding the moderation of climate risk factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Yaseen, Muhammad Rizwan & Ali, Qamar, 2019. "Nexus between financial development, tourism, renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: A continent-wise analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 293-310.
    12. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    13. Chen, Haojie, 2020. "Complementing conventional environmental impact assessments of tourism with ecosystem service valuation: A case study of the Wulingyuan Scenic Area, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Zhan, Jinyan & Wang, Chao & Wang, Huihui & Zhang, Fan & Li, Zhihui, 2024. "Pathways to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality by 2060: A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    15. Hong Shi & Xia Li & Han Zhang & Xiaojuan Liu & Taohong Li & Zhentao Zhong, 2020. "Global difference in the relationships between tourism, economic growth, CO2 emissions, and primary energy consumption," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 1122-1137, May.
    16. Maryna Henrysson & Ranjula Bali Swain & Ashok Swain & Francesco Fuso Nerini, 2024. "Sustainable Development Goals and wellbeing for resilient societies: shocks and recovery," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Muhammad Sadiq & Thanh Quang Ngo & Adamu Abdurrahman Pantamee & Khurshid Khudoykulov & Truong Thi Ngan & Luc Phan Tan, 2023. "The role of environmental social and governance in achieving sustainable development goals: evidence from ASEAN countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 170-190, January.
    18. Sun, Ya-Yen & Gossling, Stefan & Zhou, Wanru, 2022. "Does tourism increase or decrease carbon emissions? A systematic review," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. repec:osf:socarx:2c83b_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Eyup Dogan & Fahri Seker & Serap Bulbul, 2017. "Investigating the impacts of energy consumption, real GDP, tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: A panel study of OECD countries," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1701-1719, December.
    21. Zhang, Hong & Gu, Chao-lin & Gu, Lu-wen & Zhang, Yan, 2011. "The evaluation of tourism destination competitiveness by TOPSIS & information entropy – A case in the Yangtze River Delta of China," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 443-451.
    22. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth & Ray Spurr, 2003. "Inter-Industry Effects of Tourism Growth: Implications for Destination Managers," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 117-132, June.
    23. Langemeyer, Johannes & Baró, Francesc & Roebeling, Peter & Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, 2015. "Contrasting values of cultural ecosystem services in urban areas: The case of park Montjuïc in Barcelona," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 178-186.
    24. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Feridun, Mete & Kilinc, Ceyhun, 2014. "Estimating tourism-induced energy consumption and CO2 emissions: The case of Cyprus," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 634-640.
    25. Xing, Chao & Zhang, Yuming & Tripe, David, 2021. "Green credit policy and corporate access to bank loans in China: The role of environmental disclosure and green innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    26. Zaman, Khalid & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Raza, Syed Ali, 2016. "Tourism development, energy consumption and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Trivariate analysis in the panel of developed and developing countries," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 275-283.
    27. Albaladejo, Isabel P. & González-Martínez, María Isabel & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2014. "Quality and endogenous tourism: An empirical approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 141-147.
    28. Alam, Md. Samsul & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy, 2017. "The dynamic role of tourism investment on tourism development and CO2 emissions," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 213-215.
    29. Zhu Liu & Dabo Guan & Wei Wei & Steven J. Davis & Philippe Ciais & Jin Bai & Shushi Peng & Qiang Zhang & Klaus Hubacek & Gregg Marland & Robert J. Andres & Douglas Crawford-Brown & Jintai Lin & Hongya, 2015. "Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 524(7565), pages 335-338, August.
    30. Crabolu, Gloria & Font, Xavier & Eker, Sibel, 2023. "Evaluating Policy Instrument Complexity With Causal Loop Diagrams," SocArXiv 2c83b, Center for Open Science.
    31. Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets curves: New evidence on both panel and country-level CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 263-271.
    32. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    33. Crabolu, Gloria & Font, Xavier & Eker, Sibel, 2023. "Evaluating policy complexity with Causal Loop Diagrams," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    34. Moomaw, Ronald L. & Shatter, Ali M., 1996. "Urbanization and Economic Development: A Bias toward Large Cities?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 13-37, July.
    35. Su, Xiang & Tan, Junlan, 2023. "Regional energy transition path and the role of government support and resource endowment in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    36. Khalid Zaman & Mitwali Abd-el. Moemen & Talat Islam, 2017. "Dynamic linkages between tourism transportation expenditures, carbon dioxide emission, energy consumption and growth factors: evidence from the transition economies," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1720-1735, December.
    37. Jie Han & Wei Zhang & Cem Işık & Wenju Zhao & Muhammad Anas & Qinglan Zheng & Danxi Xie & Satar Bakhsh, 2024. "Sustainable development pathways: Exploring the impact of green finance on urban metabolic efficiency," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 7226-7245, December.
    38. Li, Jinghui & Bai, Yang & Alatalo, Juha M., 2020. "Impacts of rural tourism-driven land use change on ecosystems services provision in Erhai Lake Basin, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    39. Li, Fujia & Dong, Suocheng & Li, Zehong & Li, Yu & Li, Shantong & Wan, Yongkun, 2012. "The improvement of CO2 emission reduction policies based on system dynamics method in traditional industrial region with large CO2 emission," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 683-695.
    40. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 895-900, October.
    41. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2020. "Do drivers of CO2 emission growth alter overtime and by the stage of economic development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    42. Jianping Zha & Ting Tan & Wenwen Yuan & Xiaojie Yang & Ying Zhu, 2020. "Decomposition analysis of tourism CO2 emissions for sustainable development: A case study of China," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 169-186, January.
    43. Du, Kerui & Cheng, Yuanyuan & Yao, Xin, 2021. "Environmental regulation, green technology innovation, and industrial structure upgrading: The road to the green transformation of Chinese cities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    44. Vu Minh Hieu & Nguyen Thai Hai, 2023. "The role of environmental, social, and governance responsibilities and economic development on achieving the SDGs: evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 1338-1360, March.
    45. Yunting Qi & Xunpeng Shi & Yanan Chen & Yifan Shen, 2024. "Country-level evenness measure in assessing progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    46. Li, Dezhi & Huang, Guanying & Zhu, Shiyao & Chen, Long & Wang, Jiangbo, 2021. "How to peak carbon emissions of provincial construction industry? Scenario analysis of Jiangsu Province," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    47. Nepal, Rabindra & al Irsyad, M. Indra & Nepal, Sanjay Kumar, 2018. "Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism," Working Papers 2018-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    48. Bin Su & B. W. Ang, 2012. "Structural Decomposition Analysis Applied To Energy And Emissions: Aggregation Issues," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 299-317, March.
    49. Hu, Yingying & Wu, Wei, 2023. "Can fossil energy make a soft landing？— the carbon-neutral pathway in China accompanying CCS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    50. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2012. "Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: Some methodological developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 177-188.
    51. Roinioti, Argiro & Koroneos, Christopher, 2017. "The decomposition of CO2 emissions from energy use in Greece before and during the economic crisis and their decoupling from economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 448-459.
    52. Khanna, Nina Zheng & Guo, Jin & Zheng, Xinye, 2016. "Effects of demand side management on Chinese household electricity consumption: Empirical findings from Chinese household survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 113-125.
    53. Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Productivity growth and income in the tourism sector: Role of tourism demand and human capital investment," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 426-433.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiekuan Zhang & Yan Zhang, 2021. "Tourism, economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1060-1080, August.
    2. Muhammad Khalid Anser & Zahid Yousaf & Usama Awan & Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro & Khalid Zaman, 2020. "Identifying the Carbon Emissions Damage to International Tourism: Turn a Blind Eye," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Sadia Bano & Mehtab Alam & Anwar Khan & Lu Liu, 2021. "The nexus of tourism, renewable energy, income, and environmental quality: an empirical analysis of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14854-14877, October.
    4. Chien-Ming Wang & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "Does tourism promote or reduce environmental pollution? Evidence from major tourist arrival countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3334-3355, March.
    5. Ilhan Ozturk & Arshian Sharif & Danish Iqbal Godil & Adnan Yousuf & Iram Tahir, 2023. "The Dynamic Nexus Between International Tourism and Environmental Degradation in Top Twenty Tourist Destinations: New Insights From Quantile-on-Quantile Approach," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(3), pages 532-562, June.
    6. Arletta Isaeva & Raufhon Salahodjaev & Anastas Khachaturov & Shakhnoza Tosheva, 2022. "The Impact of Tourism and Financial Development on Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emission: Evidence from Post-communist Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 773-786, March.
    7. Anuman Chanthawong & Therdchai Choibamroong, 2022. "Dynamic Linkages of Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Tourism Indicators and Population: Evidence from Second-tier Cities in Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 61-72, September.
    8. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2022. "Effects of tourism on carbon dioxide emissions, a panel causality analysis with new data sets," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3884-3906, March.
    9. Ling Yang & Michael L. Lahr, 2019. "The Drivers of China’s Regional Carbon Emission Change—A Structural Decomposition Analysis from 1997 to 2007," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, June.
    10. Wang, Qiang & Han, Xinyu, 2021. "Is decoupling embodied carbon emissions from economic output in Sino-US trade possible?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Cansino, José M. & Román-Collado, Rocío & Merchán, José, 2019. "Do Spanish energy efficiency actions trigger JEVON’S paradox?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 760-770.
    12. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Danish Iqbal Godil & Zhang Yu & Farwa Abbas & Muhammad Asif Shamim, 2022. "Adoption of renewable energy sources, low‐carbon initiatives, and advanced logistical infrastructure—an step toward integrated global progress," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 275-288, February.
    13. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Yaseen, Muhammad Rizwan & Ali, Qamar, 2019. "Nexus between financial development, tourism, renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: A continent-wise analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 293-310.
    14. Hua Liao & Celio Andrade & Julio Lumbreras & Jing Tian, 2018. "CO2 Emissions in Beijing: Sectoral Linkages and Demand Drivers," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 113, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    15. Liu, Qilu & Cheng, Kaiming & Zhuang, Yanjie, 2022. "Estimation of city energy consumption in China based on downscaling energy balance tables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    16. Rui Song & Jing Liu & Kunyu Niu, 2023. "Agricultural Carbon Emissions Embodied in China’s Foreign Trade and Its Driving Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Huang, Fei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Qunwei & Hang, Ye, 2019. "Decomposition and attribution analysis of the transport sector’s carbon dioxide intensity change in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 343-358.
    18. Aller, Carlos & Ductor, Lorenzo & Grechyna, Daryna, 2021. "Robust determinants of CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    19. Avishek Khanal & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam & Eswaran Velayutham, 2021. "Are Tourism and Energy Consumption Linked? Evidence from Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Olugbenga A. Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2020. "Tourism Development and Air Pollution in Caribbean SIDs: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis," Journal of Tourismology, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 221-239, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-05145-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.