IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v11y2024i1d10.1057_s41599-024-04260-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of COVID-19 and U.S. monetary policy on Bitcoin and stock market volatility: an application of DCC-GARCH model

Author

Listed:
  • Kamphol Panyagometh

    (NIDA Business School)

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent periods of US monetary policy normalization after quantitative easing during COVID-19, global financial markets have encountered elevated levels of volatility and risk. In response, investors have increasingly sought out unconventional financial assets, such as Bitcoin, to mitigate exposure and enhance portfolio diversification. This study utilizes a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Multivariate GARCH model, specifically employing the GARCH (1,1) specification, to analyze the relationship between stock markets index of major countries and cryptocurrency, with a particular focus on Bitcoin. The results indicate statistically significant correlations between Bitcoin and stock market returns in several countries during the COVID-19 period. Volatility appears to be influenced by historical stock market performance during both the pandemic and the subsequent normalization of monetary policy. Furthermore, the DCC-GARCH models reveal low significant coefficients for ASEAN stock market indices before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that these markets may have displaced Bitcoin as a hedge asset. In contrast, stock market indices in America and Europe consistently show statistical significance across all periods, suggesting that Bitcoin’s role as a hedge in these regions is limited. In contrast, gold clearly demonstrated safe haven properties before the COVID-19 pandemic which a characteristic had not been observed for Bitcoin. However, gold has emerged as a safe haven for only ASEAN stock markets since the U.S. initial 0.25% interest rate hike.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamphol Panyagometh, 2024. "The effect of COVID-19 and U.S. monetary policy on Bitcoin and stock market volatility: an application of DCC-GARCH model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04260-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-04260-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-024-04260-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-024-04260-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matkovskyy, Roman & Jalan, Akanksha & Dowling, Michael, 2020. "Effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks on the interdependence between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 150-155.
    2. Karl Oton Rudolf & Samer Ajour El Zein & Nicola Jackman Lansdowne, 2021. "Bitcoin as an Investment and Hedge Alternative. A DCC MGARCH Model Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Jiang, Shangrong & Li, Yuze & Lu, Quanying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2022. "Volatility communicator or receiver? Investigating volatility spillover mechanisms among Bitcoin and other financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Shehzad, Khurram & Bilgili, Faik & Zaman, Umer & Kocak, Emrah & Kuskaya, Sevda, 2021. "Is gold favourable than bitcoin during the COVID-19 outbreak? Comparative analysis through wavelet approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September.
    7. Virginie Terraza & Aslı Boru İpek & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2024. "The nexus between the volatility of Bitcoin, gold, and American stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from VAR-DCC-EGARCH and ANN models," Post-Print hal-04395168, HAL.
    8. Virginie Terraza & Aslı Boru İpek & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2024. "The nexus between the volatility of Bitcoin, gold, and American stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from VAR-DCC-EGARCH and ANN models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    9. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-224.
    10. Qiuyun Wang & Lu Liu, 2022. "Pandemic or panic? A firm-level study on the psychological and industrial impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-38, December.
    11. Parichat Sinlapates & Tanit Sriwong & Surachai Chancharat, 2023. "Risk Spillovers between Bitcoin and ASEAN+6 Stock Markets before and after COVID-19 Outbreak: A Comparative Analysis with Gold," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Ratner, Mitchell & Chiu, Chih-Chieh (Jason), 2013. "Hedging stock sector risk with credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 18-25.
    13. Ellul, Reuben, 2015. "Analysing correlation between the MSE index and global stock markets," MPRA Paper 72464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from smooth transition GARCH models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    16. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    17. Michael Dempsey & Huy Pham & Vikash Ramiah, 2022. "Investment in Cryptocurrencies: lessons for asset pricing and portfolio theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1137-1144, February.
    18. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "Bitcoin, gold, and commodities as safe havens for stocks: New insight through wavelet analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 156-164.
    19. Brini, Alessio & Lenz, Jimmie, 2022. "Assessing the resiliency of investors against cryptocurrency market crashes through the leverage effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Sarika Murty & Vijay Victor & Maria Fekete-Farkas, 2022. "Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven for Indian Investors? A GARCH Volatility Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-13, July.
    21. Alessio Brini & Jimmie Lenz, 2024. "A comparison of cryptocurrency volatility-benchmarking new and mature asset classes," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, December.
    22. Alessio Brini & Jimmie Lenz, 2024. "A Comparison of Cryptocurrency Volatility-benchmarking New and Mature Asset Classes," Papers 2404.04962, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virginie Terraza & Aslı Boru İpek & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2024. "The nexus between the volatility of Bitcoin, gold, and American stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from VAR-DCC-EGARCH and ANN models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    2. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Lucey, Brian M. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Yousaf, Imran & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Hedge and safe-haven properties of FAANA against gold, US Treasury, bitcoin, and US Dollar/CHF during the pandemic period," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Tayachi, Tahar, 2021. "Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-85.
    5. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Gold-backed cryptocurrencies: A hedging tool against categorical and regional financial stress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies against stock market risk: New insights into hedging effectiveness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    7. Andreas Renard Widarto & Harjum Muharam & Sugeng Wahyudi & Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti, 2022. "ASEAN-5 and Crypto Hedge Fund: Dynamic Portfolio Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    8. Yousfi, Mohamed & Farhani, Ramzi & Bouzgarrou, Houssam, 2024. "From the pandemic to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Dynamic behavior of connectedness between financial markets and implications for portfolio management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1178-1197.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Wu, Hao & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Fei & Mao, Weifang, 2023. "How does economic policy uncertainty drive time–frequency connectedness across commodity and financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Omane-Adjepong, Maurice & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2021. "Exploration of safe havens for Africa's stock markets: A test case under COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    13. Yousaf, Imran & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Green investments: A luxury good or a financial necessity?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Can cryptocurrencies hedge oil price fluctuations? A pandemic perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Elie Bouri & Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "The predictive power of Bitcoin prices for the realized volatility of US stock sector returns," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    16. Rubaiyat Ahsan Bhuiyan & Afzol Husain & Changyong Zhang, 2023. "Diversification evidence of bitcoin and gold from wavelet analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, December.
    17. Narayan, Shivani & Kumar, Dilip, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness and risk spillover among cryptocurrencies and other asset classes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Xu, Lei & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2023. "Hedging effectiveness of bitcoin and gold: Evidence from G7 stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    19. Jiang, Yonghong & Lie, Jiayi & Wang, Jieru & Mu, Jinqi, 2021. "Revisiting the roles of cryptocurrencies in stock markets: A quantile coherency perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 21-34.
    20. Li, Leon & Miu, Peter, 2023. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for stock investors? A regime-switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 367-385.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04260-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.