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Subnational Income, Growth, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • M Ali Choudhary
  • Ilaria Dal Barco
  • Ijlal A Haqqani
  • Federico Lenzi
  • Nicola Limodio

Abstract

Using real-time data and machine-learning methods, we produce monthly aggregates on gross national income (GNI) for 147 Pakistani districts between 2012 and 2021. We use them to understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the growth and subnational distribution of income in Pakistan. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, districts experienced a sizable decline in income during the pandemic, as their monthly growth rate dropped on average by 0.133 percentage points. Second, a larger income drop took place in districts with a higher COVID-19 incidence, which correspond to urban areas characterized by a higher population density. Third, COVID-19 caused a decline in income inequality across districts, with richer districts experiencing more negative income growth during the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • M Ali Choudhary & Ilaria Dal Barco & Ijlal A Haqqani & Federico Lenzi & Nicola Limodio, 2025. "Subnational Income, Growth, and the COVID-19 Pandemic," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 362-376.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:39:y:2025:i:2:p:362-376.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhae027
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