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Gravity, market potential and economic development

  • Keith Head
  • Thierry Mayer

This article provides evidence on the long-term impact of market potential on economic development. It derives from the New Economic Geography literature a structural estimation where the level of factors' income of a country is related to its proximity to large markets, referred to as 'market potential'. The empirical part evaluates this market potential for all countries in the world with available trade data over the 1965-2003 period and relates it to income per capita. Overall results show that market potential is a powerful driver of increases in income per capita.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Economic Geography.

Volume (Year): 11 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 281-294

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jecgeo:v:11:y:2011:i:2:p:281-294
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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  2. Paul Krugman, 1990. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 3275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Stephen Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Distance, Skill Deepening and Development: Will Peripheral Countries Ever Get Rich?," NBER Working Papers 9447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2002. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "Economic Geography and International Inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp0495, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Gordon H. Hanson, 1998. "Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," NBER Working Papers 6429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Firms in the European Union," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/10192, Sciences Po.
  8. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent, 2008. "Spatial wage disparities: Sorting matters!," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 723-742, March.
  9. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  10. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2004. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," Development Working Papers 186, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Gilles Duranton & Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2002. "Mind the Gaps: The Evolution of Regional Earnings Inequalities in the U.K., 1982-1997," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 219-256.
  13. Fingleton, Bernard, 2008. "Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 542-558, May.
  14. Fally, Thibault & Paillacar, Rodrigo & Terra, Cristina, 2010. "Economic geography and wages in Brazil: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 155-168, January.
  15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10192 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. repec:inr:wpaper:21709 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Mion, Giordano & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2005. "Urbanization Externalities, Market Potential and Spatial Sorting of Skills and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 5172, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2006. "Market Access Impact on Individual Wage: Evidence from China," Working Papers 2006-23, CEPII research center.
  19. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The puzzling persistence of the distance effect on bilateral trade," Post-Print hal-01172854, HAL.
  21. Paul Krugman, 1992. "A Dynamic Spatial Model," NBER Working Papers 4219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
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