IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Public Debt Sustainability Analysis: Eu Case

  • Nicolescu Cristina

    ()

    (West UNiversity of Timisoara, of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Pirtea Marilen

    ()

    (West UNiversity of Timisoara, of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Botoc Claudiu

    ()

    (West UNiversity of Timisoara, of Economics and Business Administration)

Registered author(s):

    The global crisis has caused a serious fiscal deterioration that leaves the world economy with serious challenges. In many developed markets as well as in a few emerging markets (Emerging markets) public finances have already become, or are at least at risk of becoming, unsustainable. Commonly, public debt sustainability is defined as a sovereign's ability to service debt without large adjustments to public revenue and/or expenditure and without ever-increasing public-debt-to-GDP ratios. Hence, this definition refers to both a country\'s ability and willingness to repay its debt. We also have to add the fact that there isn`t an universal accepted definition of fiscal or debt sustainability. In light of the growing public debt, the issue of debt sustainability has increasingly attracted attention. In this paper we analyse public debt sustainability scenario in EU economies. At least half of the EU countries will have to implement stringent fiscal consolidation programmes over the next few years in order to prevent already high public-debt-to-GDP ratios from a further significant rise, also the case of Romania. However, drastic fiscal policy adjustment may be not feasible in the short term and hence public debt is likely to grow further. In some scenarios the public-debt-to-GDP ratio is predicted to soar to 133% in 2020, from just over 100% in 2010. By contrast, nearly all EM countries, including major economies, appear to be well positioned to stabilise or even outgrow their current debt ratios without drastic fiscal adjustment. Institutional improvements may help European countries to maintain fiscal credibility. In light of the future fiscal challenges, many European governments may introduce new or more effective national debt limits, similar to those put in place in the past with good results by some Emerging markets. Such institutional reforms could help to insulate fiscal policies from political pressure and to anchor financial market expectations.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/volume/2011/n1/034.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics in its journal The Journal of the Faculty of Economics - Economic.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (July)
    Pages: 409-415

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:409-415
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Universitatii str. 1, Office F209, 410087 Oradea, Bihor
    Phone: +40259408799
    Fax: 004 0259 408409
    Web page: http://anale.steconomiceuoradea.ro/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD Publishing.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:409-415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catalin ZMOLE)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.