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Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Author

Listed:
  • Bowen Wang

    (Los Angeles
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Benjamin Bass

    (Los Angeles)

  • Alex Hall

    (Los Angeles)

  • Stefan Rahimi

    (Los Angeles
    University of Wyoming)

  • Lei Huang

    (Los Angeles)

Abstract

Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowen Wang & Benjamin Bass & Alex Hall & Stefan Rahimi & Lei Huang, 2025. "Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-63635-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63635-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Dominique M. Bain & Thomas L. Acker, 2018. "Hydropower Impacts on Electrical System Production Costs in the Southwest United States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Flavio Lehner & Andrew W. Wood & Julie A. Vano & David M. Lawrence & Martyn P. Clark & Justin S. Mankin, 2019. "The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 926-933, December.
    4. A. Park Williams & Benjamin I. Cook & Jason E. Smerdon, 2022. "Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 232-234, March.
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