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Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally

Author

Listed:
  • John T. Abatzoglou

    (University of California)

  • Crystal A. Kolden

    (University of California)

  • Alison C. Cullen

    (University of Washington)

  • Mojtaba Sadegh

    (Boise State University)

  • Emily L. Williams

    (University of California)

  • Marco Turco

    (University of Murcia)

  • Matthew W. Jones

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Regions across the globe have experienced devastating fire years in the past decade with far-reaching impacts. Here, we examine the role of antecedent and concurrent climate variability in enabling extreme regional fire years across global forests. These extreme years commonly coincided with extreme (1-in-15-year) fire weather indices (FWI) and featured a four and five-fold increase in the number of large fires and fire carbon emissions, respectively, compared with non-extreme years. Years with such extreme FWI metrics are 88-152% more likely across global forested lands under a contemporary (2011–2040) climate compared to a quasi-preindustrial (1851–1900) climate, with the most pronounced increased risk in temperate and Amazonian forests. Our results show that human-caused climate change is raising the odds of extreme climate-driven fire years across forested regions of the globe, necessitating proactive measures to mitigate risks and adapt to extreme fire years.

Suggested Citation

  • John T. Abatzoglou & Crystal A. Kolden & Alison C. Cullen & Mojtaba Sadegh & Emily L. Williams & Marco Turco & Matthew W. Jones, 2025. "Climate change has increased the odds of extreme regional forest fire years globally," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-61608-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61608-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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