IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/finrev/v16y2017i4p5-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Life Cycle Model of the Fertility Choice in Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Petra Németh

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

In this paper, we model the Hungarian fertility choice at the micro level. We outline a life cycle model in which a representative family makes decisions on its number of children, the timing of having children and the mother’s return to work after having children over the course of its life cycle. In constructing the model, we incorporate the factors influencing the decision to have children (with a particular emphasis on the family benefits scheme between 2006–2014) and how the behaviours of various household types (in terms of qualifications) differ from each other. According to the simulation results, among the family support tools presented, the family tax allowance scheme introduced in 2011 has a significant impact on the final number of children, maternal age and the timing of childbearing among low and medium education families. The measures introduced in 2014 provide incentive to have three children in all educational groups and foster the early labour market return of mothers. To our knowledge, no similar modelling attempts have been made so far in the Hungarian literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Németh, 2017. "The Life Cycle Model of the Fertility Choice in Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 5-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:4:p:5-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://english.hitelintezetiszemle.hu/letoltes/fer-16-4-st1-ne-meth.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karoly Fazekas & Julia Varga (ed.), 2015. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2015," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 2015, December.
    2. Orazio Attanasio & Hamish Low & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2008. "Explaining Changes in Female Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1517-1552, September.
    3. Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2010. "The Role Of Labor And Marriage Markets, Preference Heterogeneity, And The Welfare System In The Life Cycle Decisions Of Black, Hispanic, And White Women," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 851-892, August.
    4. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
    5. Cristino R. Arroyo & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 23-65.
    6. Hans Fehr & Daniela Ujhelyiova, 2013. "Fertility, Female Labor Supply, and Family Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 138-165, May.
    7. Del Boca, Daniela & Sauer, Robert M., 2009. "Life cycle employment and fertility across institutional environments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 274-292, April.
    8. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alexander Bick, 2010. "The Quantitative Role of Child Care for Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation," 2010 Meeting Papers 892, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
    11. Karoly Fazekas & Lászlo Neumann (ed.), 2014. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2014," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 2014, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2011. "Dynamic Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1675-1726, November.
    3. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    4. David Canning & Declan French & Michael Moore, 2016. "The Economics of Fertility Timing: An Euler Equation Approach," CHaRMS Working Papers 16-03, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    5. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "The quantitative role of child care for female labor force participation and fertility," MPRA Paper 25474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bick, Alexander, 2011. "The quantitative role of child care for female labor force participation and fertility," MPRA Paper 31713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    9. Del Boca, Daniela & Locatelli, Marilena, 2006. "The Determinants of Motherhood and Work Status: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2414, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    11. Hassani Nezhad, Lena, 2020. "Female Employment and Childcare," IZA Discussion Papers 13839, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Slonimczyk, Fabián & Yurko, Anna, 2014. "Assessing the impact of the maternity capital policy in Russia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 265-281.
    13. Juan Pantano & Qi Li, 2013. "The Demographic Consequences of Gender Selection Technology," 2013 Meeting Papers 1161, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Mike Brewer & Monica Costa Dias & Jonathan Shaw, 2012. "Lifetime inequality and redistribution," IFS Working Papers W12/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers and Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 595, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    16. THELOUDIS Alexandros, 2018. "Wages and Family Time Allocation," LISER Working Paper Series 2018-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    17. Qi Li & Juan Pantano, 2023. "The demographic consequences of sex‐selection technology," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 309-347, January.
    18. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko, 2012. "Minimum Wages and Female Labor Supply in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 6892, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Fabián Slonimczyk & Anna Yurko, 2013. "Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia Using a Dynamic Model of Fertility and Employment," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 125, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    20. Alexander Bick, 2010. "The Quantitative Role of Child Care for Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation," 2010 Meeting Papers 892, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    childbearing; family support; life cycle model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:4:p:5-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Morvay Endre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.