Why Run a Million Regressions? Endogenous Policy and Cross-Country Growth Empirics
This paper analyzes the link between long-run economic growth and policy that depends on important economic fundamentals. In simple growth regressions the measured policy effects would then generally be biased. Using a widely quoted theoretical model, the signs of the biases are derived. It is shown that the usually reported effects on growth of tax-rate variables related to GDP - the ratio of public to total investment and that of redistributive transfers to GDP - would generally be biased downwards. The signed biases provide a theory-based lens through which some empirical, yet theoretically puzzling, results can be viewed and subsequently discussed.
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Volume (Year): 166 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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