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From Expected Cash Flows to Real Options

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  • Thomas E. Copeland

    (CRA International, MIT)

Abstract

This article attempts to answer some of the most common questions about how to apply the theory of real options to practice. Its primary focus is on how to start with irregular expected cash flows of the underlying risky asset that do not follow any regular stochastic process and end up with a legitimate real options analysis. It is organized as follows. Section I is a simple numerical example. Section II discusses the necessary theory -- three key assumptions. Section III discusses how to estimate volatility. Section IV goes on to describe six short case examples where the solution process worked well. The paper discusses why traditional NPV methodology forces false mutually exclusive alternatives and how real options solves the problem, and illustrates how modularity of project construction can be more valuable than significant economies of scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas E. Copeland, 2010. "From Expected Cash Flows to Real Options," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-27, March-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:14:y:2010:i:1-2:p:1-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    2. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atul Chandra & Peter R. Hartley & Gopalan Nair, 2022. "Multiple Volatility Real Options Approach to Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 79-98, June.
    2. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.

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