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Cycles and trends in U.S. net borrowing flows

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho
  • Codrina Rada von Arnim
  • Lance Taylor
  • Luca Zamparelli

Abstract

Trend and cyclical patterns of household, business, government, and foreign net borrowing shares of gross domestic product are reviewed using diagrams and covariance decompositions of the identity stating that the sum of the shares equals zero. Household and business net borrowing shares and thereby those sectors' contributions to effective demand are procyclical. Household borrowing over the cycle is led by residential investment. Consumption varies countercyclically, but it is offset by rising taxes as opposed to saving, suggesting that "consumption smoothing" by households as featured in much macro theory is not empirically important. Procyclicality of private net borrowing is countered by a countercyclical government deficit along traditional lines. In terms of trends, "twin" fiscal and foreign deficits appear infrequently, with the household and external deficits being much more closely related. The former is linked to a strong upward trend in health-care spending as a share of disposable income, with a corresponding downward trend in saving after the early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Codrina Rada von Arnim & Lance Taylor & Luca Zamparelli, 2008. "Cycles and trends in U.S. net borrowing flows," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 623-648, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:623-648
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
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    4. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2013. "Inequality and Household Finance during the Consumer Age," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_752, Levy Economics Institute.
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    7. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2016. "Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-399.
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    9. José Antonio Ocampo, 2017. "Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System," Books, Red Investigadores de Economía, number 2017-11, May.
    10. Armon Rezai, 2013. "Cycles of demand and distribution and monetary policy in the U.S. economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 231-250.
    11. Laura Barbosa de Carvalho, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances and Economic Growth: a two-country model with real-financial linkages," Working Papers 1203, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    12. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
    13. José Antonio Ocampo, 2014. "The Provision of Global Liquidity: The Global Reserve System," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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