IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v41y2014i6p1287-1304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Maldonado-Hinarejos
  • Aruna Sivakumar
  • John Polak

Abstract

Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing urban congestion and improving health, social and environmental outcomes. However, the quantification of these potential benefits is not well established. This is due in part to practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand and a lack of sound methodologies to appraise cycling initiatives. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle use that incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latent attitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilities against ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Maldonado-Hinarejos & Aruna Sivakumar & John Polak, 2014. "Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 1287-1304, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:6:p:1287-1304
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-014-9551-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-014-9551-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-014-9551-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan, 1997. "Modeling the desire to telecommute: The importance of attitudinal factors in behavioral models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-50, January.
    2. John Parkin & Mark Wardman & Matthew Page, 2008. "Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 93-109, January.
    3. Vredin Johansson, Maria & Heldt, Tobias & Johansson, Per, 2006. "The effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 507-525, July.
    4. J. Hunt & J. Abraham, 2007. "Influences on bicycle use," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 453-470, July.
    5. Wardman, Mark & Tight, Miles & Page, Matthew, 2007. "Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 339-350, May.
    6. Khandker M. Nurul Habib & Md. Hamid Zaman, 2012. "Effects of incorporating latent and attitudinal information in mode choice models," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 561-576, June.
    7. Golob, Thomas F., 2001. "Joint models of attitudes and behavior in evaluation of the San Diego I-15 congestion pricing project," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 495-514, July.
    8. Anders Skrondal & Sophia Rabe‐Hesketh, 2007. "Latent Variable Modelling: A Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 34(4), pages 712-745, December.
    9. Andrew Daly & Stephane Hess & Bhanu Patruni & Dimitris Potoglou & Charlene Rohr, 2012. "Using ordered attitudinal indicators in a latent variable choice model: a study of the impact of security on rail travel behaviour," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 267-297, March.
    10. Vandenbulcke, Grégory & Dujardin, Claire & Thomas, Isabelle & Geus, Bas de & Degraeuwe, Bart & Meeusen, Romain & Panis, Luc Int, 2011. "Cycle commuting in Belgium: Spatial determinants and 're-cycling' strategies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 118-137, February.
    11. Yáñez, M.F. & Raveau, S. & Ortúzar, J. de D., 2010. "Inclusion of latent variables in Mixed Logit models: Modelling and forecasting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 744-753, November.
    12. Fujii, Satoshi & Gärling, Tommy, 2003. "Application of attitude theory for improved predictive accuracy of stated preference methods in travel demand analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 389-402, May.
    13. Gatersleben, Birgitta & Appleton, Katherine M., 2007. "Contemplating cycling to work: Attitudes and perceptions in different stages of change," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 302-312, May.
    14. Chorus, Caspar G. & Kroesen, Maarten, 2014. "On the (im-)possibility of deriving transport policy implications from hybrid choice models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 217-222.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Álvaro Fernández-Heredia & Sergio Jara-Díaz & Andrés Monzón, 2016. "Modelling bicycle use intention: the role of perceptions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Pucher, John & Buehler, Ralph & Seinen, Mark, 2011. "Bicycling renaissance in North America? An update and re-appraisal of cycling trends and policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 451-475, July.
    3. Mikkel Thorhauge & Elisabetta Cherchi & Joan L. Walker & Jeppe Rich, 2019. "The role of intention as mediator between latent effects and behavior: application of a hybrid choice model to study departure time choices," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1421-1445, August.
    4. Ruiz, Tomás & Bernabé, José C., 2014. "Measuring factors influencing valuation of nonmotorized improvement measures," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 195-211.
    5. Ralph Buehler & John Pucher, 2012. "Cycling to work in 90 large American cities: new evidence on the role of bike paths and lanes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 409-432, March.
    6. Götschi, Thomas & Hintermann, Beat, 2013. "Valuation of public investment to support bicycling (FV-09)," Working papers 2013/02, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    7. Ehrgott, Matthias & Wang, Judith Y.T. & Raith, Andrea & van Houtte, Chris, 2012. "A bi-objective cyclist route choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 652-663.
    8. Di Ciommo, Floridea & Monzón, Andrés & Fernandez-Heredia, Alvaro, 2013. "Improving the analysis of road pricing acceptability surveys by using hybrid models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 302-316.
    9. Umer Mansoor & Mohammad Tamim Kashifi & Fazal Rehman Safi & Syed Masiur Rahman, 2022. "A review of factors and benefits of non-motorized transport: a way forward for developing countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1560-1582, February.
    10. Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2015. "About the Categorization of Latent Variables in Hybrid Choice Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1527, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Senes, Giulio & Rovelli, Roberto & Bertoni, Danilo & Arata, Laura & Fumagalli, Natalia & Toccolini, Alessandro, 2017. "Factors influencing greenways use: Definition of a method for estimation in the Italian context," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 175-187.
    12. Lanzendorf, Martin & Busch-Geertsema, Annika, 2014. "The cycling boom in large German cities—Empirical evidence for successful cycling campaigns," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 26-33.
    13. Nkurunziza, Alphonse & Zuidgeest, Mark & Brussel, Mark & Van Maarseveen, Martin, 2012. "Examining the potential for modal change: Motivators and barriers for bicycle commuting in Dar-es-Salaam," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 249-259.
    14. Bergantino, Angela S. & Bierlaire, Michel & Catalano, Mario & Migliore, Marco & Amoroso, Salvatore, 2013. "Taste heterogeneity and latent preferences in the choice behaviour of freight transport operators," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 77-91.
    15. Verma, Meghna & Rahul, T.M. & Vinayak, Pragun & Verma, Ashish, 2018. "Influence of childhood and adulthood attitudinal perceptions on bicycle usage in the Bangalore city," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 94-105.
    16. Chatterjee, Kiron & Sherwin, Henrietta & Jain, Juliet, 2013. "Triggers for changes in cycling: the role of life events and modifications to the external environment," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 183-193.
    17. José Castillo-Manzano & Antonio Sánchez-Braza, 2013. "Managing a smart bicycle system when demand outstrips supply: the case of the university community in Seville," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 459-477, February.
    18. Márquez, Luis & Soto, Jose J., 2021. "Integrating perceptions of safety and bicycle theft risk in the analysis of cycling infrastructure preferences," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 285-301.
    19. Yang Si & Hongzhi Guan & Yuchao Cui, 2019. "Research on the Choice Behavior of Taxis and Express Services Based on the SEM-Logit Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, May.
    20. Hyochul Park & Yong Lee & Hee Shin & Keemin Sohn, 2011. "Analyzing the time frame for the transition from leisure-cyclist to commuter-cyclist," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 305-319, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:41:y:2014:i:6:p:1287-1304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.