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On the (im-)possibility of deriving transport policy implications from hybrid choice models

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  • Chorus, Caspar G.
  • Kroesen, Maarten

Abstract

This paper focuses on hybrid choice models of the type increasingly being used by travel demand modelers, which include latent perception and attitude related variables. We argue that, contrary to current practice, these models do not support the derivation of policies that aim to change travel behavior by means of changing the value of a latent variable. An example of such a policy is a marketing campaign which aims to influence the latent variable ‘perceived quality of public transport’, and as a consequence mode choice behavior. We argue that this lack of support is due to the combination of two factors: (i) the latent variable is usually to a non-trivial extent endogenous to the travel choice, precluding inference of causality; and (ii) the data are almost without exception cross-sectional as far as the latent variable is concerned, and as such do not allow for claims concerning changes in the variable at the individual level. When data for the latent variables are cross-sectional, and to the extent that endogeneity of the latent variables cannot be ruled out, these variables should best not be used as targets for travel demand management policies—although they may still be used as input for scenario studies that involve changes in the population over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Chorus, Caspar G. & Kroesen, Maarten, 2014. "On the (im-)possibility of deriving transport policy implications from hybrid choice models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 217-222.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:217-222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vij, Akshay & Walker, Joan L., 2016. "How, when and why integrated choice and latent variable models are latently useful," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 192-217.
    2. Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2015. "About the Categorization of Latent Variables in Hybrid Choice Models," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1527, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Rafael Maldonado-Hinarejos & Aruna Sivakumar & John Polak, 2014. "Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 1287-1304, November.
    4. repec:spr:custns:v:5:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40547-017-0071-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:transa:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:190-202 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:transa:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:51-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Benedict G. C. Dellaert & Joffre Swait & Wiktor L. Vic Adamowicz & Theo A. Arentze & Elizabeth E. Bruch & Elisabetta Cherchi & Caspar Chorus & Bas Donkers & Fred M. Feinberg & A. A. J. Marley & Linda , 2018. "Individuals’ Decisions in the Presence of Multiple Goals," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 51-64, March.
      • Dellaert, B.G.C. & Swait, J. & Adamowicz, W.L. & Arentze, T.A. & Bruch, E.E. & Cherchi, E. & Chorus, C.G. & Donkers, A.C.D. & Feinberg, F.M. & Marley, A.A.J. & Salisbury, L.C., 2017. "Individuals' Decisions in the Presence of Multiple Goals," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2017-007-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    8. repec:kap:transp:v:45:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-016-9751-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:252-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:eejocm:v:26:y:2018:i:c:p:80-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bouscasse, H., 2018. "Integrated choice and latent variable models: A literature review on mode choice," Working Papers 2018-07, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    12. Potoglou, Dimitris & Palacios, Juan-Francisco & Feijóo, Claudio, 2015. "An integrated latent variable and choice model to explore the role of privacy concern on stated behavioural intentions in e-commerce," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 10-27.
    13. repec:eee:transa:v:111:y:2018:i:c:p:65-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke & Uwe Kunert & Heike Link & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2017. "About attitudes and perceptions: finding the proper way to consider latent variables in discrete choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 475-493, May.
    15. Hélène Bouscasse, 2018. "Integrated choice and latent variable models: A literature review on mode choice," Working Papers hal-01795630, HAL.
    16. Fernández-Antolín, Anna & Guevara, C. Angelo & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Bierlaire, Michel, 2016. "Correcting for endogeneity due to omitted attitudes: Empirical assessment of a modified MIS method using RP mode choice data," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-15.
    17. repec:eee:eejocm:v:25:y:2017:i:c:p:28-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:eee:trapol:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:119-130 is not listed on IDEAS

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