IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/qmktec/v23y2025i2d10.1007_s11129-025-09296-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CPG consumption in times of recession: novel evidence from matched administrative data

Author

Listed:
  • Calogero Brancatelli

    (European Central Bank)

  • Roman Inderst

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

We utilize a novel dataset that merges household administrative income and socio-demographic information from tax records with scanner data on CPG consumption. Our analysis reveals significant variation in household per-capita expenditures. However, we find only a modest economic relationship between CPG spending and income, even amidst substantial within-household income fluctuations during the Dutch "double-dip recession" from 2011 to 2018. This relationship remains small for households with low income and low liquidity and holds across both food and non-food expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Calogero Brancatelli & Roman Inderst, 2025. "CPG consumption in times of recession: novel evidence from matched administrative data," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 265-289, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:23:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11129-025-09296-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11129-025-09296-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11129-025-09296-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11129-025-09296-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wladimir Raymond & Pierre Mohnen & Franz Palm & Sybrand Schim van der Loeff, 2010. "Persistence of Innovation in Dutch Manufacturing: Is It Spurious?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 495-504, August.
    2. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    3. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2014. "Fiscal Policy and MPC Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 107-136, October.
    4. Martin O'Connell & Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith, 2022. "The Use of Scanner Data for Economics Research," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 723-745, August.
    5. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    6. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Itay Saporta-Eksten, 2016. "Consumption Inequality and Family Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 387-435, February.
    7. Chan, Kenneth S. & Dang, Vinh Q.T. & Li, Tingting & So, Jacky Y.C., 2016. "Under-consumption, trade surplus, and income inequality in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 241-256.
    8. Barbara Deleersnyder & Marnik G. Dekimpe & Miklos Sarvary & Philip M. Parker, 2004. "Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution of Consumer Durables Over the Business Cycle," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 347-383, December.
    9. Kaplan, Greg & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2017. "Inflation at the household level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 19-38.
    10. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    11. Marnik G. Dekimpe & Barbara Deleersnyder, 2018. "Business cycle research in marketing: a review and research agenda," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 31-58, January.
    12. de Meijer, Claudine & O’Donnell, Owen & Koopmanschap, Marc & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2013. "Health expenditure growth: Looking beyond the average through decomposition of the full distribution," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 88-105.
    13. Calogero Brancatelli & Adrian Fritzsche & Roman Inderst & Thomas Otter, 2022. "Measuring Income and Wealth Effects on Private-Label Demand with Matched Administrative Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 637-656, May.
    14. Hunt Allcott & Rebecca Diamond & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Jessie Handbury & Ilya Rahkovsky & Molly Schnell, 2019. "Food Deserts and the Causes of Nutritional Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1793-1844.
    15. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi, 2018. "Income and Wealth Effects on Private-Label Demand: Evidence from the Great Recession," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 22-53, January.
    16. Lammers, Marloes & Bloemen, Hans & Hochguertel, Stefan, 2013. "Job search requirements for older unemployed: Transitions to employment, early retirement and disability benefits," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 31-57.
    17. Kanishka Misra & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Consumption, Income Changes, and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 84-106, October.
    18. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2322-2341.
    19. Scott Ross Baker & Contantine Yannelis, 2017. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 99-124, January.
    20. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    21. Pushan Dutt & V. Padmanabhan, 2011. "Crisis and Consumption Smoothing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 491-512, 05-06.
    22. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Pistaferri, 2016. "Consumption Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brancatelli, Calogero & Inderst, Roman, 2021. "Income and Consumption over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Matched Administrative Data," EconStor Preprints 253665, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Bilbiie, F. O. & Galaasen, S. M. & Gurkayna, R. S. & Maehlum, M. & Molnar, K, 2025. "Hanksson," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    4. Fagereng, Andreas & Onshuus, Helene & Torstensen, Kjersti N., 2024. "The consumption expenditure response to unemployment: Evidence from Norwegian households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Albuquerque, Bruno & Green, Georgina, 2023. "Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Adam Tejs Jørring, 2024. "Financial Sophistication and Consumer Spending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3773-3820, December.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    8. Antonio Acconcia & Simone Chinetti & Tullio Jappelli, 2025. "Consumption and Liquidity Shocks," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 11(1), pages 17-29, March.
    9. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    10. Crawley, Edmund & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2024. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption," Discussion Paper 2024-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    12. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4398-4446.
    13. Paolo Surico & Riccardo Trezzi, 2015. "Austerity and Households Expenditure," 2015 Meeting Papers 513, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Kanishka Misra & Vishal Singh & Qianyun (Poppy) Zhang, 2022. "Frontiers: Impact of Stay-at-Home-Orders and Cost-of-Living on Stimulus Response: Evidence from the CARES Act," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 211-229, March.
    15. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Peter Ganong & Damon Jones & Pascal Noel & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Chris Wheat, 2020. "Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks," Working Papers 2020-49, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    17. Milan van den Heuvel & Benjamin Vandermarliere & Koen Schoors, 2019. "The Asymmetric Response Of Consumption To Income Changes And The Effect Of Liquid Wealth," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/958, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Kris Boudt & Koen Schoors & Milan van den Heuvel & Johannes Weytjens, 2023. "Taming the Zoo of Consumption Responses to Labour Income Changes," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1067, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    19. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 102-129.
    20. J r my Boccanfuso, 2022. "Consumption Response Heterogeneity and Dynamics with an Inattention Region," Working Papers wp1172, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • M30 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:23:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11129-025-09296-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.