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Has Trade Become More Responsive to Income? Assessing the Evidence for US Imports

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  • Janet Ceglowski

Abstract

This study tests the stability of a standard equation for aggregate US imports over the period 1975–2011. It finds evidence of significant parameter instability, though its dating varies with the equation specification and diagnostic. Nonetheless, the analysis finds a significant rise in the long-run income elasticity that is robust across most break dates and specifications. The increase in the long-run income elasticity is consistent with shifts in the composition of aggregate imports toward capital and consumer goods. There is further evidence that vertical specialization may be behind both the structural instability and the apparent rise in the income elasticity of aggregate US imports. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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  • Janet Ceglowski, 2014. "Has Trade Become More Responsive to Income? Assessing the Evidence for US Imports," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 225-241, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:225-241
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-013-9281-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Byron Gangnes & Ari Van Assche, 2016. "Global Value Chains and Changing Trade Elasticities," Working Papers 201617, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    2. Vahagn Galstyan, 2015. "Productivity, Trade, and Relative Prices in a Ricardian World," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 817-838, September.
    3. Talan İşcan, 2015. "Windfall Resource Income, Productivity Growth, and Manufacturing Employment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 279-311, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imports; Elasticities; Vertical specialization; Parameter stability; F14; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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