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The Asymmetric Wealth Effect in the US Housing and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Threshold Cointegration Model

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  • I-Chun Tsai

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  • Cheng-Feng Lee

    ()

  • Ming-Chu Chiang

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Abstract

Previous studies commonly use a linear framework to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the housing and stock markets. The linear approaches may not be appropriate if adjustments from disequilibrium are asymmetric in both markets. Nonlinear adjustments are likely to be observed since the two markets respond rather differently to negative shocks where the stock market is more volatile but price rigidity is found in the housing market. In this paper, we firstly propose two hypotheses on the long-run equilibrium relationship of the US housing and stock markets, and then employ the threshold cointegration model to investigate the potential asymmetric relationships between the two markets. Our empirical results reveal that cointegration exists among the markets, but adjustments toward its long-run equilibrium are asymmetric. Further evidence points out that a rapid mean reversion occurs in one regime where the stock price outperforms the housing price, and no significant reversion is found in the other regime, supporting the hypothesis of the existence of an asymmetric wealth effect among the two markets in the US. Furthermore, evidence from the asymmetric vector error correction model shows that significant error corrections toward the equilibrium exist in the short run only when the stock price exceeds the real estate price by the estimated threshold level, reassuring the finding of the asymmetric wealth effect. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • I-Chun Tsai & Cheng-Feng Lee & Ming-Chu Chiang, 2012. "The Asymmetric Wealth Effect in the US Housing and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Threshold Cointegration Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 1005-1020, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:1005-1020
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-011-9304-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsangyao Chang & Xiao-lin Li & Stephen M. Miller & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Co-Movement and Causality between the U.S. Real Estate and Stock Markets in the Time and Frequency Domains," Working papers 2013-34, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    3. Tsai, I-Chun & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamic relationships between housing prices and trading volumes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-184.
    4. Tsai, I-Chun, 2016. "Wealth effect and investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 111-123.
    5. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Ripple effect and contagious effect in the US regional housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 55-82, January.
    6. Yuming Li & Laura Yue Liu, 2014. "Wealth, Labor Income and House Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 394-413.
    7. Li, Yuming, 2015. "The asymmetric house price dynamics: Evidence from the California market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-12.
    8. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:1045213 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:64-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eme:ijhmap:ijhma-05-2016-0037 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Tsangyao & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "The co-movement and causality between the U.S. housing and stock markets in the time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 220-233.
    12. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    13. Tsai, I-Chun, 2015. "Dynamic information transfer in the United States housing and stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 215-230.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing price index; Stock market index; Wealth effect; Momentum-threshold autoregressive; Cointegration; G1;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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