IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/enreec/v88y2025i8d10.1007_s10640-025-01002-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unintended Effects of Germany’s Nuclear Phase Out: A Rise in Mortality Due to Non-Communicable Respiratory Diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Tuomas Kaariaho

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki)

Abstract

The discussion on nuclear power balances its risks against carbon emissions resulting from nuclear phase-out. This paper studies an important unintended consequence of abandoning nuclear power: the adverse health effects of increased air pollutants. I use the synthetic control method to study the causal effect of the German nuclear phase-out on mortality. I find that the nuclear plant closures resulted in 17 life years lost each year per 100,000 inhabitants or roughly 170 premature deaths per year from non-communicable respiratory diseases. This effect accounts for an 8% increase in mortality due to respiratory diseases and corresponds to around one billion euros per year in lost lives.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuomas Kaariaho, 2025. "Unintended Effects of Germany’s Nuclear Phase Out: A Rise in Mortality Due to Non-Communicable Respiratory Diseases," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(8), pages 2085-2123, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:88:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s10640-025-01002-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-025-01002-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-025-01002-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10640-025-01002-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tatyana Deryugina & Garth Heutel & Nolan H. Miller & David Molitor & Julian Reif, 2019. "The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4178-4219, December.
    2. Browning, Martin & Heinesen, Eskil, 2012. "Effect of job loss due to plant closure on mortality and hospitalization," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 599-616.
    3. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    4. Grossi, Luigi & Heim, Sven & Waterson, Michael, 2017. "The impact of the German response to the Fukushima earthquake," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 450-465.
    5. Dube, Arindrajit & Zipperer, Ben, 2015. "Pooling Multiple Case Studies Using Synthetic Controls: An Application to Minimum Wage Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 8944, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Brigitte Knopf & Michael Pahle & Hendrik Kondziella & Fabian Joas & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Bruckner, 2014. "Germany's Nuclear Phase-out: Sensitivities and Impacts on Electricity Prices and CO2 Emissions," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    7. François Salanié & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Regulation in Happyville," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 665-679, April.
    8. Luigi Grossi & Sven Heim & Kai Hüschelrath & Michael Waterson, 2018. "Electricity market integration and the impact of unilateral policy reforms," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(3), pages 799-820.
    9. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2023. "Carbon pricing and emissions: Causal effects of Britain's carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Daniel Sullivan & Till von Wachter, 2009. "Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis Using Administrative Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1265-1306.
    11. Chu, Yin & Holladay, J. Scott & Qiu, Yun & Tian, Xian-Liang & Zhou, Maigeng, 2023. "Air pollution and mortality impacts of coal mining: Evidence from coalmine accidents in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Isaksen, Elisabeth Thuestad, 2020. "Have international pollution protocols made a difference?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. He, Guojun & Fan, Maoyong & Zhou, Maigeng, 2016. "The effect of air pollution on mortality in China: Evidence from the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 18-39.
    14. Lisac, Melanie & Reimers, Lutz & Henke, Klaus-Dirk & Schlette, Sophia, 2010. "Access and choice – competition under the roof of solidarity in German health care: an analysis of health policy reforms since 2004," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 31-52, January.
    15. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2011. "Synth: An R Package for Synthetic Control Methods in Comparative Case Studies," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i13).
    16. Renn, Ortwin & Marshall, Jonathan Paul, 2016. "Coal, nuclear and renewable energy policies in Germany: From the 1950s to the “Energiewende”," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 224-232.
    17. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    18. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    19. Hake, Jürgen-Friedrich & Fischer, Wolfgang & Venghaus, Sandra & Weckenbrock, Christoph, 2015. "The German Energiewende – History and status quo," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 532-546.
    20. Spencer Wheatley & Benjamin Sovacool & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 99-115, January.
    21. Chu, Yin & Holladay, J. Scott & Qiu, Yun & Tian, Xian-Liang & Zhou, Maigeng, 2023. "Air Pollution and Mortality Impacts of Coal Mining: Evidence from Coalmine Accidents in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1302, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335434 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    3. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    4. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    5. Runst, Petrik & Höhle, David, 2022. "The German eco tax and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Pekka Malo & Juha Eskelinen & Xun Zhou & Timo Kuosmanen, 2024. "Computing Synthetic Controls Using Bilevel Optimization," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1113-1136, August.
    7. Andrii Melnychuk, 2024. "Synthetic Controls with spillover effects: A comparative study," Papers 2405.01645, arXiv.org.
    8. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    9. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    10. Sebastian Fossati & Joseph Marchand, 2020. "First to $15: Alberta's Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places," Working Papers 2020-15, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. Rafaty, Ryan & Dolphin, Geoffroy & Pretis, Felix, 2025. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Diego D'iaz & Pablo Paniagua & Cristi'an Larroulet, 2024. "Earthquakes and the wealth of nations: The cases of Chile and New Zealand," Papers 2405.12041, arXiv.org.
    13. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    14. Nadine McCloud, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 98-134.
    15. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    16. Isaksen, Elisabeth Thuestad, 2020. "Have international pollution protocols made a difference?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Edoardo Masset, 2022. "Conflict and Child Mortality in Mali: A Synthetic Control Analysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 1097-1123, December.
    18. Leroutier, Marion, 2022. "Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    19. Marina Frants, 2024. "Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 104-123.
    20. Pier Basaglia & Sophie M. Behr & Moritz A. Drupp, 2023. "De-Fueling Externalities: How Tax Salience and Fuel Substitution Mediate Climate and Health Benefits," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, 2023. "The Cost of a Currency Peg during the Great Recession," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 255-279, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:88:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s10640-025-01002-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.