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Mean Reversion in CO2 Emissions: the Need for Structural Change

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  • Peter S. Sephton

    (Queen’s University)

Abstract

This paper examines stochastic convergence of national and relative per capita CO2 emissions for a wide range of nations. It demonstrates that nearly all series are mean-reverting once allowance is made for non-linearity and the presence of serial correlation. The policy implications are far-reaching since the implication is that mitigation can be accomplished only through structural changes that alter the deterministic paths of emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter S. Sephton, 2020. "Mean Reversion in CO2 Emissions: the Need for Structural Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(4), pages 953-975, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:75:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-020-00413-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00413-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. William Brock & M. Taylor, 2010. "The Green Solow model," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-153, June.
    3. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2018. "Convergence in CO2 emissions: A spatial economic analysis with cross-country interactions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 222-238.
    4. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2008. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, January.
    5. Mark Strazicich & John List, 2003. "Are CO 2 Emission Levels Converging Among Industrial Countries?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(3), pages 263-271, March.
    6. Dolado Juan J. & Gonzalo Jesus & Mayoral Laura, 2008. "Wald Tests of I(1) against I(d) Alternatives: Some New Properties and an Extension to Processes with Trending Components," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-35, December.
    7. Pettersson, Fredrik & Maddison, David & Acar, Sevil & Söderholm, Patrik, 2014. "Convergence of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Review of the Literature," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 7(2), pages 141-178, July.
    8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in $$\hbox {CO2}$$ CO2 Emissions: Evidence from the BRICS and G7 Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 869-883, August.
    9. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    10. Marco R. Barassi & Nicola Spagnolo & Yuqian Zhao, 2018. "Fractional Integration Versus Structural Change: Testing the Convergence of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 923-968, December.
    11. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández González, Paula, 2018. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions. An approach from nonlinear stationarity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 563-581.
    12. Peter Sephton, 2009. "Critical values for the augmented efficient Wald test for fractional unit roots," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 615-626, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Sephton & Tolga Omay, 2023. "A note on CO2 emissions using two new tests," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 933-941, November.
    2. Diego Romero-Ávila & Tolga Omay, 2023. "Convergence of GHGs emissions in the long-run: aerosol precursors, reactive gases and aerosols—a nonlinear panel approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 12303-12337, November.
    3. Veli Yilanci & Muhammed Sehid Gorus & Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2022. "Convergence in per capita carbon footprint and ecological footprint for G7 countries: Evidence from panel Fourier threshold unit root test," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(3), pages 527-545, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional integration; CO2 emissions; Chebyshev polynomials; Multivariate adaptive regression splines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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