IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/annfin/v3y2007i2p257-276.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Industry and time specific deviations from fundamental values in a random coefficient model

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Becchetti
  • Roberto Rocci
  • Giovanni Trovato

Abstract

The paper analyzes the relationship between stock prices and fundamentals for a large sample of US stocks in the last ten years using a random coefficient model. Heterogeneity and omitted variable bias are properly taken into account with model coefficients being allowed to vary across time and industries. The random coefficient model allows to track waves of reliance on analysts forecasts and non fundamental stock price components across time.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Becchetti & Roberto Rocci & Giovanni Trovato, 2007. "Industry and time specific deviations from fundamental values in a random coefficient model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 257-276, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:3:y:2007:i:2:p:257-276
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-006-0047-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10436-006-0047-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10436-006-0047-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Marco Alfò & Giovanni Trovato, 2004. "Semiparametric mixture models for multivariate count data, with application," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 426-454, December.
    3. Asch, Peter & Malkiel, Burton G. & Quandt, Richard E., 1982. "Racetrack betting and informed behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 187-194, July.
    4. Marco Alfò & Giovanni Trovato, 2004. "Semiparametric Mixture Models for Multivariate Count Data, with Application," CEIS Research Paper 51, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    5. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 455-477.
    7. Chow, Ying-Foon & Liu, Ming, 1999. "Long Swings with Memory and Stock Market Fluctuations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 341-367, September.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    10. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    11. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    12. Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December.
    13. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    14. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    15. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan & Anna Scherbina, 2000. "The declining U.S. equity premium," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Fall), pages 3-19.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    18. Joe Mattey and Richard Meese., 1986. "Empirical Assessment of Present Value Relations," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 162, University of California at Berkeley.
    19. Kaplan, Steven N & Ruback, Richard S, 1995. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1059-1093, September.
    20. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    21. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    22. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
    23. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:639-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    26. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June.
    27. Leonardo Becchetti & Fabrizio Adriani, 2004. "Do high-tech stock prices revert to their 'fundamental' value?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 461-476.
    28. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    29. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 2574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr, 1983. "The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payments on Shareholders' Wealth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    31. Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1354, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Becchetti & Giovanni Trovato, 2011. "Corporate social responsibility and firm efficiency: a latent class stochastic frontier analysis," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 231-246, December.
    2. Velinov, Anton & Chen, Wenjuan, 2015. "Do stock prices reflect their fundamentals? New evidence in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Florian Esterer & David Schröder, 2014. "Implied cost of capital investment strategies: evidence from international stock markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-195, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2006. "What Drives Stock Prices? Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 55-78, July.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    6. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    7. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    9. Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 35/2006.
    10. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    12. Baur, Robert Frederick, 1992. "Overreaction in futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.
    14. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
    16. Mesly, Olivier & Chkir, Imed & Racicot, François-Éric, 2019. "Predatory cells and puzzling financial crises: Are toxic products good for the financial markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 11-31.
    17. Lucy Ackert & William Hunter, 2001. "An Empirical Examination of the Price-Dividend Relation with Dividend Management," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 115-129, April.
    18. Matteo Formenti, 2014. "Can Market Risk Perception Drive Inefficient Prices? Theory and Evidence," Papers 1409.4890, arXiv.org.
    19. Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2006_035.
    20. Fabrizio Mattesini & Leonardo Becchetti, 2008. "The stock market and the Fed," CEIS Research Paper 113, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
    21. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    22. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental/price relationship; Finite mixture models; EM algorithm; Panel data; C140; C230; G120;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:3:y:2007:i:2:p:257-276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.