Empirical Evidence on the “Never Change a Winning Team” Heuristic
“Never change a winning team” is a well-known heuristic that recommends not altering the composition of successful teams. Using game-level observations of the highest German soccer league over a period of seven seasons, we find that the number of changes in the starting line-up is significantly lower after wins than after losses, taking suspensions and unobserved team heterogeneity into account. We show that teams of coaches who follow the heuristic do not win significantly more often, and that coaches significantly decrease the number of changes in the starting line-up even after wins caused by the exogenous home field advantage. These results provide first suggestive evidence that coaches may be influenced by behavioural concerns when following the heuristic to not change winning teams.
Volume (Year): 232 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Licher Straße 74, 35394 Gießen|
Phone: +49 (0)641 99 22 001
Fax: +49 (0)641 99 22 009
Web page: http://wiwi.uni-giessen.de/home/oekonometrie/Jahrbuecher/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Luis Garicano & Ignacio Palacios & Canice Prendergast, 2001.
"Favoritism Under Social Pressure,"
NBER Working Papers
8376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence M. Kahn, 2000. "The Sports Business as a Labor Market Laboratory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 75-94, Summer.
- Thomas J. Dohmen, 2008. "The Influence Of Social Forces: Evidence From The Behavior Of Football Referees," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(3), pages 411-424, 07.
- Christian Grund & Oliver Gurtler, 2005.
"An empirical study on risk-taking in tournaments,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 457-461.
- Sutter, Matthias & Kocher, Martin G., 2004.
"Favoritism of agents - The case of referees' home bias,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
18180, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Sutter, Matthias & Kocher, Martin G., 2004. "Favoritism of agents - The case of referees' home bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 461-469, August.
- Matthias Sutter & Martin G. Kocher, . "Favoritism of agents – The case of referees’ home bias," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-28, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Inman, J Jeffrey & Zeelenberg, Marcel, 2002. " Regret in Repeat Purchase versus Switching Decisions: The Attenuating Role of Decision Justifiability," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 116-28, June.
- Edward C. Norton & Hua Wang & Chunrong Ai, 2004. "Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 154-167, June.
- Franck, Egon & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "The effect of talent disparity on team productivity in soccer," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 218-229, April.
- Inman, J.J. & Zeelenberg, M., 2002. "Regret in repeat purchase versus switching decisions : The attenuating role of decision justifiability," Other publications TiSEM 44060120-bd30-40e0-a97f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:232:y:2012:i:3:p:247-257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Winker)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.